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中文摘要: 应用CERES小麦模式,在假定水热条件变化(日平均温度变化-1℃,0℃,1℃和2℃,日降水量变化±20%,±10%,±5%和0%,共28种组合)的气候情景下,模拟了小麦的生育过程。结果表明,对于试验点镇江来说,温度变化比水分变化对小麦的影响更显著;温度升高,发育加快,生育期缩短;水热变化对籽粒产量的影响多数为不利,特别在温度降低、水分减少时更为明显;温度升高、降水减少均可使土壤有效水分减少。
中文关键词: CERES小麦模式，水热条件，模拟试验
Abstract:The growing process of winter wheat is simulated by CERES-wheat model assuming the daily temperature variation to be-1℃, 0℃, 1℃, 2℃and daily precipitation change to be - 20% ,-10%,-5%,0,5%,10%,20% respectively. The case study site is of zhenjiang,Jiang-su Province, which locates in the middle east of China. The simulation results show that the impact of temperature variation on winter wheat is stronger than that of precipitation change. Warming climate can speed up the development rate and shorten the phenological period. In ge-neral,the adverse effect of climatic change on grain yield is greater than that of its beneficial effect, especially when the climatic cooling and drying. Both the temperture increase and precipitation decrease can reduce the plant extractable soil water content.
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引用文本：
张宇,1993.水热变化对冬小麦生长发育的模拟试验[J].气象,19(7):19-22.
,1993.Numerical Experiments for the Impacts of Temperature and Precipitation on Growth and Development of Winter Wheat[J].Meteor Mon,19(7):19-22.
张宇,1993.水热变化对冬小麦生长发育的模拟试验[J].气象,19(7):19-22.
,1993.Numerical Experiments for the Impacts of Temperature and Precipitation on Growth and Development of Winter Wheat[J].Meteor Mon,19(7):19-22.