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中文摘要: 根据盐城市的大、小麦产量、农技措施和气象资料，采用极限产量权重法组建大、小麦产量(y)的预报模式：y=yM-y农-y灾-y气或改写为：y=yM[1-(∑ai+∑bj+∑cn)]，对盐城市大、小麦产量进行分段预报，经多年试报，结果与实产的相对误差均在5%以内。
中文关键词: 极限产量，权重法，分阶段预报，大、小麦产量
Abstract:The model of forcasting the production of wheat and barley by the weighting method of Limit production is developed based on the production of barley and wheat,agricultural technology and weather data. The model is:>y=yM-y农-y灾-y气 or y=yM[1-(∑ai+∑bj+∑cn)]
It is adopted to forecast the production of barley and wheat in the Yancheng area. Experimental forecasts in the past suggest that the error of the model is less than 5%.
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引用文本：
李荣生,袁玉付,1996.极限产量权重法分段预报盐城市大、小麦产量[J].气象,22(5):55-57.
,1996.Forecasting the Production of Barley and Wheat by Stages Using the Weighting Method of Limit Production[J].Meteor Mon,22(5):55-57.
李荣生,袁玉付,1996.极限产量权重法分段预报盐城市大、小麦产量[J].气象,22(5):55-57.
,1996.Forecasting the Production of Barley and Wheat by Stages Using the Weighting Method of Limit Production[J].Meteor Mon,22(5):55-57.