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中文摘要: 利用近40年来山东省41站降水资料，分析了各水资源分区降水演变特征。以均生函数为基函数，用主成分分析原理进行筛选，建立了山东省各水资源分区降水时序多步预测模型。通过计算试验，拟合、预报效果均较好。
中文关键词: 降水变化特征,水资源分区,多步降水预报
Abstract:The characteristics of rainfall variation in water resource divisions in Shandong province are analysed using precipitation data of 41 weather stations in recent 40 years. Mean generation function is used as basic function,which is screened through principal component analysis. Mean-step predictive models are set up in water resource divisions in term of mean generation function. The forecasting results are rather good through testing and fitting calculation.
keywords: characteristics of rainfall variation, water resource divisions, mulli step precipnation prediction
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基金项目:本文由省自然科学基金“山东气候变化对水资源影响及对策研究”课题资助
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引用文本：
胡桂芳,张苏平,1996.近40年山东各水资源分区降水变化特征及多步预测时序模型[J].气象,22(8):16-19.
,1996.The Characteristics of Rainfall Variation in Water Resoure Divisions in Shandong in Recent 40 Years and Multi-step Time Series Predictive Model[J].Meteor Mon,22(8):16-19.
胡桂芳,张苏平,1996.近40年山东各水资源分区降水变化特征及多步预测时序模型[J].气象,22(8):16-19.
,1996.The Characteristics of Rainfall Variation in Water Resoure Divisions in Shandong in Recent 40 Years and Multi-step Time Series Predictive Model[J].Meteor Mon,22(8):16-19.