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气象:2003,29(6):3-6
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北极涛动对东亚夏季降水的预测意义
(北京师范大学资源科学研究所环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,100875)
Arctic Oscillation′s Significance for Prediction of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
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中文摘要: 分析了春季北极涛动(AO)指数的变化对梅雨—Changma—Baiu带夏季降水年际变化的影响。对观测的东亚10个站的降水长序列资料(1899~1999年) ,进行滤波处理,保留10年以下的年际时间尺度的变化,再进行相关分析。结果表明,近百年的5月北极涛动指数与10站夏季平均降水相关最高达- 0.45,超过99%信度水平。当北极涛动偏强一个标准差时,整个长江中下游地区到日本南部一带,降水减少平均约8%左右。降水的这种变化与对流层东亚急流的变化密切相关:春季北极涛动强时,随后夏季急流位置通常偏北,雨带位置也北移,从而造成梅雨—Changma—Baiu带降水减少,反之亦然。较强的AO异常对降水的影响更明显,而较弱的AO与降水异常的对应关系并不显著。这对东亚夏季年际降水异常具有一定的预测意义。
Abstract:The influence of spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the summer rainfall over Meiyu—Changma—Baiu regions is analyzed.Here the precipitation observations for period 1899—1999 for ten stations located in these regions are employed.Results show that on the interannual time scale,the correlation between 10-station-mean precipitation and May AO is -0 45,significant at 99% confidence level.There are about 8% decrease of summer rainfall in association with a one standard deviation stronger AO,and vice versa.The responsible atmospheric circulation displays a north shift of the jet stream.It is also found that the larger anomalies of AO are usually followed by more significant variations of rainfall;whereas,the relations are not evident in the small-AO-anomaly conditions.This is helpful for East Asian summer rainfall prediction.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G1998040900),国家自然科学基金项目(4010500)资助。
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引用文本:
龚道溢,2003.北极涛动对东亚夏季降水的预测意义[J].气象,29(6):3-6.
,2003.Arctic Oscillation′s Significance for Prediction of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall[J].Meteor Mon,29(6):3-6.