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中文摘要: 对天津市气象台和河北省气象台在2002年7～8月的海河流域面雨量24h、48h预报进行了误差对比分析，列举了几种预报误差，并利用模糊数学中的综合评判法，计算了它们的模糊评分。结果表明:海河流域的面雨量预报有一定的可信度，把其作为水文模式的初值，有较高的利用价值;对于各气象台各自辖区内的预报，范围越小，预报越准确;在对面雨量预报效果的评估上，80% (或80)这一数值是客观、可信的。
中文关键词: 海河流域，面雨量，预报，误差分析
Abstract:The errors of 24 hour and 48 hour area rainfall forecast of Tianjin Meteorological Observatory and Hebei Meteorological Observatory in the Haihe river basin from July to August 2002 are analyzed. Based on fuzzy comprehensive judgment method, the two observatories′ fuzzy grades are calculated. The results show that area rainfall forecasts in the Haihe river basin have much more reliability, which are much more useful as a initial values of hydrologic model. The results also show that in the observatories′ forecast regions, the less the area, the higher the forecast accuracy, and the number 80% (or 80) is an objective and believable value for evaluating the forecast effects of area rainfall.
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引用文本：
王新龙,胡欣,尤凤春,2003.2002年7～8月海河流域面雨量预报的误差分析[J].气象,29(6):41-45.
,2003.Error Analysis of Area Rainfall Forecast in the Haihe River Basin from July to August 2002[J].Meteor Mon,29(6):41-45.
王新龙,胡欣,尤凤春,2003.2002年7～8月海河流域面雨量预报的误差分析[J].气象,29(6):41-45.
,2003.Error Analysis of Area Rainfall Forecast in the Haihe River Basin from July to August 2002[J].Meteor Mon,29(6):41-45.