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中文摘要: 应用自然正交函数分解(EOF)方法,分析了甘肃省庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的综合评价指数DH的空间分布特征及随时间演变规律;分析了春末夏初干旱对冬小麦和玉米产量的影响;应用逐步回归方法建立了春末夏初干旱的预测模型,业务使用效果良好。
中文关键词: 干旱，气候特征，预测模型
Abstract:The temporal-spatial distribution of drought index DH in late spring and early summer in the eastern Gansu Province is analyzed by EOF. The effect of drought on output of winter wheat and corn is also analyzed. Finally, a forecast model of drought index is developed with stepwise regression and it has better forecast results.
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基金项目:国家“九五”重点项目“我国短期气候预测系统研究”资助 ,课题编号 :969080503
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 王位泰 | 甘肃省庆阳地区气象局，西峰 745000 |
| Author Name | Affiliation |
引用文本：
王位泰,2003.陇东黄土高原春末夏初旱的气候特征及预测模型[J].气象,29(9):34-36.
,2003.Climatic Characteristics of Drought and Its Forecast Model in Late Spring and Early Summer in the Eastern Gansu Province[J].Meteor Mon,29(9):34-36.
王位泰,2003.陇东黄土高原春末夏初旱的气候特征及预测模型[J].气象,29(9):34-36.
,2003.Climatic Characteristics of Drought and Its Forecast Model in Late Spring and Early Summer in the Eastern Gansu Province[J].Meteor Mon,29(9):34-36.