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气象:2004,30(12):11-16
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我国短期气候预测业务系统
(国家气候中心,北京 100081)
China Operational Short-range Climate Prediction System
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中文摘要: 中国第一代短期气候监测、预测、评价和服务业务系统主要由6个部分组成:数据库、动力气候模式系统、气候监测诊断系统、短期气候预测系统、气候影响评价系统与气候应用服务系统。在建立短期气候业务系统过程中,主要获得了三方面的成果:第一,揭示出影响中国气候异常的最强气候信号是厄尔尼诺事件、高原积雪和季风;第二,发展并建立了复杂的全球与区域动力气候模式预测系统,该系统包括T63L16全球大气环流模式、高分辨率区域气候模式、T63L30全球海洋模式和海冰模式、太平洋和印度洋高分辨率海洋模式和厄尔尼诺预测模式;第三,在高性能计算机和网络的支持下建立了完整的业务应用系统,不仅可提供短期气候预测信息,而且可以快速、客观、准确地给出气候变化对水资源、农业、林业、交通、电力、重大工程等国民经济重要部门和关键地区的影响,及时为决策部门提供决策服务。1998年开始应用以来,国家和大区两级整体预报水平比“九五”以前20年平均提高了6%~10%。但对区域性强洪涝事件的预报能力偏低,尚需进一步提高。
Abstract:The first-generation of the Operational Short-range Climate Prediction System in China consists of data base,dynamic climatic model system,climatic monitoring and diagnostic system,short-range climate prediction system,climatic impact and assessment system and climatic application and service system. The researches during the development of the system have revealed that the stronger signals for the climate anomalies in China are El Nio event,plateau snow cover,and monsoon. The global and regional dynamic climate model system,which includes T63L16 global general circulation model,high-resolution regional climate model,T63L30 global oceanic model and sea-ice model,the Pacific and the India Ocean high-resolution oceanic model and El Nino prediction model,is developed. The operational and application system supported by the high performance computers and network can supply the short-range climatic information,as well as the impacts of the climatic changes on the water resources,agriculture,forestry,communication,electric power,and so on,and supply the service to policy makers. It shows that the system has a certain skill. The prediction accuracy after using the system from 1998,as a whole,is above 6%—10% higher than that in the 20 years before 1998. But the climate prediction for regional severe floods has shown a low skill and needs to be improved.
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引用文本:
丁一汇,2004.我国短期气候预测业务系统[J].气象,30(12):11-16.
,2004.China Operational Short-range Climate Prediction System[J].Meteor Mon,30(12):11-16.