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中文摘要: 在常规的天气分析基础上，尝试用事件概率回归方法来预报咸阳机场辐射雾的消散，以实现雾消预报的定量化。选取咸阳机场1992～2002年95个辐射雾日样本资料，进行事件概率回归分析。入型条件为：早晨06时(北京时)咸阳机场有辐射雾(能见度≤700m) ，考虑4小时内辐射雾消散与否的概率。因子的选取根据因子间及因子与预报量间的相关系数决定，所求回归方程经F检验是显著的。预报效果经回报与试报，准确率达到78%以上。
中文关键词: 辐射雾，事件概率回归，相关性
Abstract:Based on the synoptic routine analysis, a regression estimation of event probabilities to forecast scatter of radiation fog at Xianyang Airport is developed. An analysis is made by selecting 95 events of radiation fog at 6:00 a.m. during the period from 1992 to 2002 and thinking over the probabilities of scatter of the radiation fog in 4 hours. The regression equation is significant on the statistic F-test, and the accuracy of returning-forecast and testing-forecast are over 78%.
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引用文本：
高洁,刘端次,靳英燕,2005.用事件概率回归方法预报咸阳机场辐射雾消散[J].气象,31(4):81-84.
,2005.A Regression Estimation of Event Probabilities for ForecastingScatter of Radiation Fog at Xianyang Airport[J].Meteor Mon,31(4):81-84.
高洁,刘端次,靳英燕,2005.用事件概率回归方法预报咸阳机场辐射雾消散[J].气象,31(4):81-84.
,2005.A Regression Estimation of Event Probabilities for ForecastingScatter of Radiation Fog at Xianyang Airport[J].Meteor Mon,31(4):81-84.