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投稿时间：2006-12-25 修订日期：2007-02-27
投稿时间：2006-12-25 修订日期：2007-02-27
中文摘要: 利用我国新一代数值预报模式GRAPES，采用6个不同的参数化方案组合：即选择Kessler、NC
EP3－class simple ice和simple ice (developed by LiuQijun，CAMS)微物理过程参数
化方案和Kain Fritsch(new Eta)、Betts Miller Janjic积云参数化方案形成6个组合
，对2004年贵州汛期的降水过程进行48小时的预报试验,对预报结果进行对比分析并与实况
资料进行比较、检验。结果表明：GRAPES模式适合对贵州的降水预报；积
Abstract:Based on the new generation numerical prediction model GRAPES (Global/
Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System), with three kinds of physi
cs option parameterization schemes(Kessler schemes、NCEP3－class simple ice sc
hemes and simple ice schemes (developed by Liu Qinjun, CAMS) ) and two kinds of cu
mulus parameterization schemes (Kain Fritsch (new Eta) and Betts Miller Janji
c), six combinational schemes are formed. 48 hour predicting experiments
are made for the precipitation cases in the rainy season in Guizhou. Comparisons
among the experiments and analyses of the observations indicate that GRAPES model can be
used for predicting Guizhou precipitation. The predicting effect of cumulus para
meterization schemes is better than that of physics option parameterization sche
mes. The predicting Guizhou precipitation ability of combinational schemes with
simple ice scheme physics option parameterization, Betts Miller Janjic cumulus
parameterization is superior to the others. These results are useful for improvin
g the GRAPES model for predicting Guizhou precipitation.
keywords: GRAPES model parameterization scheme precipitation
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基金项目:贵州省科技基金（2006）2102和中国气象局2007年多轨道业务建设项目“
西南地区滑坡和泥石流灾害气象监测预警业务服务系统”共同资助
引用文本：
伍红雨,陈德辉,徐国强,2007.不同物理过程参数化方案对贵州降水预报的敏感性试验[J].气象,33(4):23-28.
Wu Hongyu,Chen Dehui,Xu Guoqiang,2007.Sensitive Experiments of Various Parameterization Schemes in Different Physical Processes on Guizhou Precipitation[J].Meteor Mon,33(4):23-28.
伍红雨,陈德辉,徐国强,2007.不同物理过程参数化方案对贵州降水预报的敏感性试验[J].气象,33(4):23-28.
Wu Hongyu,Chen Dehui,Xu Guoqiang,2007.Sensitive Experiments of Various Parameterization Schemes in Different Physical Processes on Guizhou Precipitation[J].Meteor Mon,33(4):23-28.