宁波市突发性地质灾害气象预报预警方法

朱龙彪; 何彩芬; 陈有利; 崔飞君; 朱晓曦

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.11.018

气象:2007,33(11):112-117

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宁波市突发性地质灾害气象预报预警方法

朱龙彪¹, 何彩芬¹, 陈有利¹, 崔飞君², 朱晓曦²

(1.浙江省宁波市气象局， 315012;2.浙江省宁波市国土资源局)

Early Warning and Prediction of Abrupt Geological Hazards Based on Weather Forecast in Ningbo

Zhu Longbiao¹, He Caifen¹, Chen Youli¹, Cui Feijun², Zhu Xiaoxi²

(1.Ningbo Meteorological office, Zhejiang Province 315012;2.Ningbo Land and Resources Department，Zhejiang Province)

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本文已被：浏览 995次下载 4168次
投稿时间：2006-12-07 修订日期：2007-07-14

中文摘要: 地质灾害的诱发因素包括人为因素和自然因素，但在一定的地质结构及环境条件下，降雨是地质灾害发生的最主要诱发因素。基于人工神经网络系统（ANN）和地理信息系统（GIS），结合地面中尺度自动观测系统的雨量实况与高精度的WRF数值预报雨量格点产品，依托MICAPS系统，实现预报员的快速主观订正，建立的宁波市突发性地质灾害预报预警系统在业务运行中是高效可行的。

中文关键词: 地质灾害气象条件预报预警

Abstract:The geological hazards can be induced by both man made and natural fa c tors. Precipitation may be the most important factor under a certain geological structure and environmental conditions. The early warning and prediction system of abrupt geological hazard in Ningbo would be very efficient and feasible in th e operation, which is based on artificial neural net work (ANN) and geographica l information system (GIS), combined with rainfall factor from surface mesoscale observation system and high precision grid rainfall amount forecasted by WRF mo d el and relied on MICAPS to achieve quick subjective correction by forecasters.

keywords: geological hazard meteorological condition early warning and prediction

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作者	单位
朱龙彪	浙江省宁波市气象局， 315012
何彩芬	浙江省宁波市气象局， 315012
陈有利	浙江省宁波市气象局， 315012
崔飞君	浙江省宁波市国土资源局
朱晓曦	浙江省宁波市国土资源局

Author Name	Affiliation
Zhu Longbiao	Ningbo Meteorological office, Zhejiang Province 315012
He Caifen	Ningbo Meteorological office, Zhejiang Province 315012
Chen Youli	Ningbo Meteorological office, Zhejiang Province 315012
Cui Feijun	Ningbo Land and Resources Department，Zhejiang Province
Zhu Xiaoxi	Ningbo Land and Resources Department，Zhejiang Province

引用文本：
朱龙彪,何彩芬,陈有利,崔飞君,朱晓曦,2007.宁波市突发性地质灾害气象预报预警方法[J].气象,33(11):112-117.
Zhu Longbiao,He Caifen,Chen Youli,Cui Feijun,Zhu Xiaoxi,2007.Early Warning and Prediction of Abrupt Geological Hazards Based on Weather Forecast in Ningbo[J].Meteor Mon,33(11):112-117.