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气象:2008,34(6):11-16
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T639L60全球中期预报系统预报试验和性能评估
(1.国家气象中心,北京 100081;2.湖南省湘阴县气象局)
Experiments and Evaluations of Global Medium Range Forecast System of T639L60
(1.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081;2.Xiangyin County Meteorological Station, Hunan Province)
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投稿时间:2007-12-21    修订日期:2008-04-28
中文摘要: 在目前国家气象中心全球业务中期谱模式T213L31中成功引入ECMWF的稳定外插半拉格朗日方 案,将归约高斯格点转换为线性高斯格点,解决了模式分辨率提高的关键技术。将模式谱分 辨率从213波提高到639波,垂直层次从31层提升到60层,模式层顶从10hPa升至0.1hPa。建 立T639L60中期同化预报系统,进行连续一年多连续滚动试验,对预报员关心的降水预报和5 00hPa形势场预报进行了统计学检验,与现行全球中期业务模式进行对比分析。分析结果表 明,T639L60中期系统对500hPa位势高度场预报性能比业务有明显改进,东亚地区达1天。 从降水客观评分上看,中国地区降水各量级降水的Ts评分均明显提高,在预报偏差(B值 )方面,小到大雨预报偏差明显降低,暴雨的预报偏差有所增加。
中文关键词: T639  分辨率  距平相关  均方根误差  TS评分  B值
Abstract:A new treatment of two time level semi Lagrangian scheme: Stable Extra polation Two Time Level Scheme (SETTLS) has been successfully applied in the dynamic frame of T213L31 and the reduced Gaussian grid is transferred to linear Gau ssian grid, which made the number of spectral truncation increase from 213 to 63 9 and formed so called T639L60 system. More than one year continuous forecast e xperiments have been done, and the results of objective verification on the perf ormance of 5 day precipitation forecasting and 10 day geo potential height fo recasting at 500hPa level are compared with the counterparts of operational system—T213L31.It shows that T639L60 system makes obvious improvement on 500hPa geo potential height forecasting over East Asia with improving one day valuable fore cast time. And it also improves the precipitation forecasting at light to heavy rain levels over all efficient times according to threat score and bias. Althoug h the threat score of T639 at storm rain level is higher than that of T213, the bias of T639 is worse than T213.
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管成功,陈起英,佟华,王辉,2008.T639L60全球中期预报系统预报试验和性能评估[J].气象,34(6):11-16.
Guan Chenggong,Chen Qiying,Tong Hua,Wang Hui,2008.Experiments and Evaluations of Global Medium Range Forecast System of T639L60[J].Meteor Mon,34(6):11-16.