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投稿时间:2008-05-05 修订日期:2008-09-23
投稿时间:2008-05-05 修订日期:2008-09-23
中文摘要: 使用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式嵌套区域气候模式(RegCM NCC)对1983—2002年中国
夏季平均气温和降水进行了数值回报试验,并对2003—2007年夏季进行实时预报。从模式20
年回报的平均状况来看,模式基本上能够反映出中国夏季气候的平均状况。使用国家气候中
心气候预测室的业务预报评分(P)和距平相关系数(ACC)等五个评估参数对模式的回报和
预报进行了评估分析,结果表明:该模式对我国夏季平均气温和降水具有一定的跨季度预报
能力,部分地区有较好的预报效果。区域气候模式20年夏季平均气温的回报与实况在分布形
态上较为相似,回报夏季降水量的分布形态与实况有一定的差异。近25年区域气候模式夏季
平均气温预报P评分为67.9分,降水为67.6分。
Abstract:20-year hindcast experiments (1983-2002) and 5 year forecasts of summer averag
e temperature and rainfall over China are presented by using regional climate mo
del (RegCM_NCC) that is a nested global atmosphere ocean coupled model (CGCM
_NCC). The RegCM_NCC can reproduce the averaged pattern of average temperatu
re and precipitation during the 20 year hindcast summer. From the whole analysi
s of the forecast score (P) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), the RegCM
_NCC has some capabilities in predicting the major seasonal average temperatur
e and rain belt, especially in some areas. The pattern of hindcasted 20 year av
erage temperature is very close to that of observed temperature, while there is
some extent of difference between the patterns of hindcasted and observed precipitation. The forecast scores (P)
of the hindcasted and forecasted 25 year averaged summer temperature and precip
itation are 67.9 and 67.6, respectively.
keywords: regional climate model hindcast forecast assess
ment
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:
Author Name | Affiliation |
Sun linhai | National Climate Center,Beijing 100081 |
Liu Yiming | National Climate Center,Beijing 100081 |
引用文本:
孙林海,刘一鸣,2008.区域气候模式对中国夏季平均气温和降水的评估分析[J].气象,34(11):31-39.
Sun linhai,Liu Yiming,2008.Assessment Analysis of Summer Temperature and Rainfall over China from Regional Climate Model[J].Meteor Mon,34(11):31-39.
孙林海,刘一鸣,2008.区域气候模式对中国夏季平均气温和降水的评估分析[J].气象,34(11):31-39.
Sun linhai,Liu Yiming,2008.Assessment Analysis of Summer Temperature and Rainfall over China from Regional Climate Model[J].Meteor Mon,34(11):31-39.