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投稿时间：2009-04-09 修订日期：2009-11-21
投稿时间：2009-04-09 修订日期：2009-11-21
中文摘要: 根据1960—2006年我国川渝地区120个观测站的月降水资料，分析了降水的空间分布特征，利用相关分析、小波分析和小波凝聚谱等方法，探讨了川渝地区降水与Nino3区SST的关系及其稳定性。结果表明：一致性异常分布是川渝地区降水变化的最主要空间模态，第一模态时间系数与Nino3区SST有着较好的相关关系。这种关系表明，在Nino3区SST暖状态，川渝地区降水偏少；在Nino3区SST冷状态时则情况相反。川渝地区降水和Nino3区SST关系的稳定性分析表明，降水和SST之间在准2 a，4～6 a变化周期上存着较好的相关关系，但这种相关关系并不稳定，存在着年代际变化：1960—1986年呈正相关关系，1987—2006年呈负相关关系。
中文关键词: 降水, Nino3区SST, 交叉小波
Abstract:According to the monthly precipitation data of 120 meteorological stations in Chongqing and Sichuan during 1960-2006, the precipitation distribution in these areas was analyzed. At the same time, by correlation analysis, cross wavelet transform, the relationship between the precipitation over Chongqing and Sichuan and SST in Nino3 and its stability were also analyzed. The main results are as follows: the consistent anomaly distribution is the main spatial model of precipitation variation in Chongqing and Sichuan. The first mode time series of EOF had good relationship with SST in Nino3. This relationship manifested that in the warm phase of SST in Nino3, the precipitation in Chongqing and Sichuan was less, while, in the cold phase, more. The precipitation in Chongqing and Sichuan had good relationship with SST in Nino3 in quasi 2 a, 4-6 a periodic changes, but this relationship was not stable. There were good positive and negative correlations during 1960-1986 and 1987-2006 respectively.
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基金项目:国务院三峡工程建设委员会办公室生态环境补偿经费（SX2009 004）资助
引用文本：
程炳岩,郭渠,孙卫国,2010.川渝地区降水变化与Nino3区SST的关系及其稳定性分析[J].气象,36(3):27-33.
CHENG Bingyan,GUO Qu,SUN Weiguo,2010.Relationship Between SST in Nino3 and the Precipitation over Chongqing and Sichuan and Its Stability[J].Meteor Mon,36(3):27-33.
程炳岩,郭渠,孙卫国,2010.川渝地区降水变化与Nino3区SST的关系及其稳定性分析[J].气象,36(3):27-33.
CHENG Bingyan,GUO Qu,SUN Weiguo,2010.Relationship Between SST in Nino3 and the Precipitation over Chongqing and Sichuan and Its Stability[J].Meteor Mon,36(3):27-33.