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气象:2011,37(4):446-453
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2010年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响
(中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 国家气候中心 北京 100081)
Anomalies of Ocean and Atmospheric Circulation in 2010 and Their Impacts on Climate in China
(The Laborotory of Climate Study of CMA, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2011-03-09    修订日期:2011-03-15
中文摘要: 为了及时总结气候异常发生的成因,提高气候预测准确率,本文利用历史和实时观测资料以及物理机制诊断等方法,对我国2010年气候异常的成因进行了初步分析。结果表明,2010年是进入21世纪以来气候最为异常的一年。海洋异常特征主要有:2009年6月至2010年4月,赤道太平洋发生一次中等强度的厄尔尼诺事件,2010年7月又迅速进入拉尼娜状态;而热带印度洋海温距平的发展经历了全区一致型暖海温异常和负偶极型海温模态两个阶段;北大西洋海温距平表现为“三极子”型特征。受海温异常强迫和海气相互作用的影响,北半球大气环流的主要特征有:西太平洋副热带高压在10月之前受厄尔尼诺影响而异常偏强偏西,之后受拉尼娜影响而异常偏弱偏东,副高脊线位置也表现出明显的阶段性特征;夏季中高纬地区出现明显的阻塞形势;南海夏季风为1951年以来最弱的一年,东亚夏季风也异常偏弱。此外,2009/2010年冬季北极涛动出现近60年来最强负异常。在海温异常强迫和大气内部动力过程共同作用下的环流异常是造成2010年中国气候异常的主要原因。
Abstract:In order to conclude the reasons of climatic anomaly and improve the skill of climatic prediction, the observation data and physical mechanism diagnostic method were used to analyze the climatic anomaly reasons in 2010. Results showed that the climatic anomaly in 2010 ranked the first within recent 10 years and the abnormity of ocean and atmospheric circulation features may lead to that. A moderate El Nino event occurred from June of 2009 to April of 2010 and followed by La Nina event from July of 2010. The tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) experienced two important periods: from basin wide warming to negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode, and North Atlantic SSTA was characterized as triple mode in the same period. Due to the influences forced by SSTA and interaction between ocean and atmosphere, the atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere showed the dominant anomalies which have been featured as response as follows: subtropical high over the West Pacific (SHWP) was stronger than normal and further west to its normal position because of El Nino event before October of 2010, and afterwards it was weaker than normal and further east to its normal position due to La Nina event, and the location of its ridge line also showed significant stage characteristics. The strength of the South China Sea summer monsoon was the weakest since 1951 and East Asian monsoon was weaker than normal; Blocking highs were located over middle high latitudes in Boreal summer. Furthermore, the Arctic Oscillation ranked the extreme negative phase in 2009/2010 winter within 60 years. SSTA forcing and internal atmospheric dynamic processes may lead to the climatic anomaly in China in 2010.
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基金项目:科技部科技支撑项目(2009BAC51B05)、国家自然科学基金(40905035)和973 项目(2010CB428606)共同资助
引用文本:
贾小龙,陈丽娟,龚振淞,王遵娅,袁媛,孙丞虎,2011.2010年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响[J].气象,37(4):446-453.
JIA Xiaolong,CHEN Lijuan,GONG Zhensong,WANG Zunya,YUAN Yuan,SUN Chenghu,2011.Anomalies of Ocean and Atmospheric Circulation in 2010 and Their Impacts on Climate in China[J].Meteor Mon,37(4):446-453.