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投稿时间：2011-07-30 修订日期：2012-01-14
投稿时间：2011-07-30 修订日期：2012-01-14
中文摘要: 利用T213数值预报产品，计算了多个对流参数，应用事件概率回归方法分别建立了全国690个基本站4—9月的24 h雷暴潜势预报方程，并根据TS评分值最大的原则确定了雷暴发生预报的临界概率，针对2010年4—9月进行试预报。研究结果表明：(1)基于T213输出产品计算得到的对流参数物理意义明确，与雷暴有无事件相关系数较高，对雷暴潜势预报方程贡献很大。(2)雷暴潜势预报方程对区域性雷暴的预报指示性较强，尤其对于雷电频发的地区效果更好。(3)690个站TS评分平均值为0.24。
中文关键词: 雷暴， 预报， 动力 统计方法
Abstract:Based on the T213 numerical forecast products and many convective parameters calculated, the 24 h thunderstorm potential prediction formulas are set up for 690 national meteorological stations from April to September by using event probability regression method. At the same time based on the TS score maximum principle, the critical probability of occurrence of thunderstorm forecast is defined and the forecasts for April-September 2010 are focussed. The results show that, (1) the convective parameters based on T213 output product calculation have clearly physical meaning, and are highly related with the occurrence of thunderstorms, making significant contributions to the forecast formulas. (2) Thunderstorm potential prediction formulas are stronger indicators to regional forecasts of thunderstorms, especially to lightning striking areas. (3) The average TS score for 690 stations is 0.24.
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基金项目:国家科技支撑计划(2009BAC53B02和2007BAC29B03)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106034)共同资助
引用文本：
曾淑玲,巩崇水,赵中军,李旭,周甘霖,王式功,尚可政,2012.动力-统计方法在24小时雷暴预报的应用[J].气象,38(12):1508-1514.
ZENG Shuling,GONG Chongshui,ZHAO Zhongjun,LI Xu,ZHOU Ganlin,WANG Shigong,SHANG Kezheng,2012.The Application of Dynamical Statistical Method to 24 h Thunderstorm Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,38(12):1508-1514.
曾淑玲,巩崇水,赵中军,李旭,周甘霖,王式功,尚可政,2012.动力-统计方法在24小时雷暴预报的应用[J].气象,38(12):1508-1514.
ZENG Shuling,GONG Chongshui,ZHAO Zhongjun,LI Xu,ZHOU Ganlin,WANG Shigong,SHANG Kezheng,2012.The Application of Dynamical Statistical Method to 24 h Thunderstorm Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,38(12):1508-1514.