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气象:2013,39(6):774-781
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江淮流域水稻高温热害灾损变化及应对策略
(1.江苏省气候中心,南京 210008;2.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部共建重点实验室,南京 210044;3.江苏省气象台,南京 210008)
Impact of High Temperature on Single Cropping Rice over Yangtze Huaihe River Valley and Response Measures
(1.Jiangsu Climate Centre, Nanjing 210008;2.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of the Ministry of Education, Nanjing University  〓of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;3.Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008)
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投稿时间:2012-03-25    修订日期:2012-08-08
中文摘要: 构建基于Logistic模型的规范化可累计高温热害综合指数,研究了江淮流域高温热害与单季稻产量损失的时空对应关系,发现江淮流域西北部为单季稻高温热害灾损关键区,高温热害平均减产率从20世纪70年代的8.9%上升到21世纪的17.9%,花期处在高温集中时段是单季稻减产的主要原因。江淮流域单季稻生育关键期高温热害出现年代际波动,20世纪60年代高温热害最强,21世纪初覆盖范围最广。高温热害覆盖面积比例在1971年发生突变后迅速上升,到21世纪初超过63.6%。每年7月11日至8月15日为江淮流域高温集中时段,高温出现比例超过20%。20世纪70年代以来高温集中时段的热害强度以增强为主,江淮东南部趋势显著,但通过采用晚熟品种和推迟播期,江淮东南部单季稻花期成功避开高温集中时段。综合考虑气温稳定通过20℃终日的气候平均值、高温热害变化和气候变暖背景下热量资源的改善,借鉴江淮东南部成功经验,建议全流域推广中晚熟品种,自北向南播种期延迟到5月上、中、下旬,花期安排在8月下旬至9月上旬,避开高温同时能保证单季稻生育关键期处在20℃以上安全生长季内。
Abstract:On the basis of Logistic model, a normalized comprehensive heat injury index that can be accumulated is applied in studying the high temperature events and assessing their impacts on single rice yield. The results show that the northern west part of Yangtze Huaihe River Valley is the critical zone of rice yield loss due to heat injury through the analysis of the relationship between the heat injury index and rice yield loss. In this region, the average loss rate increases notably from 8.9% in 1970s to 17.9% in 2000s with the expanded loss areas. Rice flowering stage concentrates in the period of high temperature, which is the main cause for rice yield loss. Heat injury indexes and affected areas of high temperature reach their maxima respectively in 1960s and 2000s. An abrupt change occurs in 1971 for high temperature covered proportion. Since then high temperature covered proportion increases continuously and gets to 63.6% in 2000s. High temperature events concentrates in the period of 11 July and 15 August every year with 〖JP2〗proportions of more than 20%. With considering comprehensively the end dates of stable temperature above 20℃, concentrated period of high temperature, climate change and the successful experience of avoiding high temperature in the southeastern part of Yangtze Huaihe River Valley, we suggest that late maturing rice be promoted and its sowing date be delayed to May. These measures can ensure the flowering stage to occur in the period between late August and early September, avoiding the high temperature damages.〖JP〗
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106021)和中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201222)和江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2011831)共同资助
引用文本:
谢志清,曾燕,杜银,高苹,2013.江淮流域水稻高温热害灾损变化及应对策略[J].气象,39(6):774-781.
XIE Zhiqing,ZENG Yan,DU Yin,GAO Ping,2013.Impact of High Temperature on Single Cropping Rice over Yangtze Huaihe River Valley and Response Measures[J].Meteor Mon,39(6):774-781.