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投稿时间：2012-12-25 修订日期：2013-07-31
投稿时间：2012-12-25 修订日期：2013-07-31
中文摘要: 以新安江模型为基础，提出了考虑土壤含水量饱和度的动态临界雨量山洪预警方法。该方法采用新安江模型计算流域的土壤含水量饱和度，根据土壤含水量饱和度以及山洪发生前6、12和24 h等3个时间尺度的最大降雨量，应用基于最小均方差准则的W H (Widrow Hoff) 算法分别建立3个时间尺度的山洪预警动态临界雨量判别函数。利用该方法，结合淠河流域2003—2009年地面雨量站降雨资料以及17次典型洪水过程资料，率定了新安江模型参数，并用10次历史个例对所建立的3个时间尺度的山洪预警动态临界雨量判别函数进行了应用检验，山洪预警合格率超过了70%，表明该方法用于山洪预警是可行的。
中文关键词: 临界雨量， 山洪预警， 新安江模型， 淠河流域
Abstract:A flash flood early warning method based on dynamic critical precipitation is proposed in this paper. The method calculates soil moisture saturation using the Xin’anjiang model, then sets up forewarning discriminant functions for three time scales, 6 h, 12 h and 24 h, using Widrow Hoff algorithm of minimum mean square error criteria, and based on soil moisture saturation and maximum 6 h, 12 h and 24 h precipitation before each flood event. With this method, together with rainfall data of the 17 flood events occurring during the period from 2003 to 2009, wich are obtained at precipitation stations in Pihe Basin parameters for the model are calibrated and the method is applied in 10 historical flash flood events to verify the three time scale forewarning discriminent functions. The correct forecast rate is over 70%, demonstrating that the method is reliable and can be used to flash flood forecasting and early warning.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41101017)和公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201006037）共同资助
引用文本：
叶金印,李致家,常露,2014.基于动态临界雨量的山洪预警方法研究与应用[J].气象,40(1):101-107.
YE Jinyin,LI Zhijia,CHANG Lu,2014.Research and Application of Flash Flood Early Warning Method Based on Dynamic Critical Precipitation[J].Meteor Mon,40(1):101-107.
叶金印,李致家,常露,2014.基于动态临界雨量的山洪预警方法研究与应用[J].气象,40(1):101-107.
YE Jinyin,LI Zhijia,CHANG Lu,2014.Research and Application of Flash Flood Early Warning Method Based on Dynamic Critical Precipitation[J].Meteor Mon,40(1):101-107.