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气象:2014,40(10):1216-1229
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2009—2013年中国西南地区连续干旱的成因分析
(1 兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000,2 中国人民解放军63801部队,西昌 615000;2.1 兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000;3.1 兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000,3 中国人民解放军63796部队,西昌 615000,3 The 63796 PLA Troops, Xichang 615000)
Analysis on Causes of Continuous Drought in Southwest China During 2009-2013
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投稿时间:2013-11-27    修订日期:2014-05-03
中文摘要: 2009年以来,中国西南地区连续4年秋、冬、春季出现严重干旱,持续时间长、影响范围大、干旱程度重,给旱区农林业生产和人民生活带来严重影响,造成巨大的经济损失。本文利用多种资料从大尺度大气环流、水汽输送、太平洋及印度洋海温、平流层极涡等方面分析了此次连续干旱的原因。结果表明:南支槽强度偏弱、孟加拉湾水汽输送偏少以及弱极涡背景下,异常波活动造成的AO负异常引起的冷空气路径偏东是这4年持续干旱的共同特点。热带海表温度的异常变化对西南地区干旱的影响也不容忽视,主要表现在对孟加拉湾和南海水汽输送的阻碍上。La Nina事件中,热带印度洋冬、春季海表温度的异常变化对干旱影响更为突出。冬、春季平流层和对流层的动力耦合作用结果使得AO位相发生变化,其中异常负位相的强度及持续时间对这4年西南地区秋、冬、春连旱的影响显著。
Abstract:Severe droughts occurred in Southwest China continuously in 4 years’ autumn, winter, spring beginning from 2009. Because of the long duration, large scope and heavy degrees, the drought has caused huge economic losses, seriously impacting on agroforestry production and people’s life in arid zones. In this paper, the causes of the continuous drought are analyzed from the impacts of the anomalies of large scale atmospheric circulation, water vapor transportation, the Pacific and Indian Ocean SST, stratospheric polar vortex strength by analyzing a variety of data. The results show that the common backgrounds of the 4 years’ continuous drought are weaker south branch trough, less water vapor transport over the Bay of Bengal and easterly cold air mass caused by AO negative anomalies which are produced by abnormal wave activities during weak polar vortex. The abnormal changes of tropical SST during the drought over Southwest China play important roles in blocking water vapor transport over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. In the La Nina event, the effect of the tropical Indian Ocean SST changes in winter and spring is more outstanding. The phase of AO is always changed by the dynamic couple between stratosphere and troposphere in winter and spring, and the intensity and duration of the abnormally negative phase of AO have significant effects on the drought that occurred in Southwest China in the autumn, winter and spring of 4 consecutive years.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206004和GYHY201106034)和甘肃省国际科技合作计划项目(1204WCGA016)共同资助
引用文本:
胡学平,王式功,许平平,尚可政,2014.2009—2013年中国西南地区连续干旱的成因分析[J].气象,40(10):1216-1229.
HU Xueping,WANG Shigong,XU Pingping,SHANG Kezheng,2014.Analysis on Causes of Continuous Drought in Southwest China During 2009-2013[J].Meteor Mon,40(10):1216-1229.