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投稿时间：2014-12-20 修订日期：2014-01-13
投稿时间：2014-12-20 修订日期：2014-01-13
中文摘要: 对2014年9—11月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本（文中简称JP）数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明：3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变及850 hPa温度转折性变化具有较好的中期预报性能，但对北方的温度预报偏差明显大于南方。对于副热带高压脊线的位置，T639和EC模式都有较好的预报能力，EC模式比T639模式偏差小。EC模式对于1416号台风凤凰的路径及强度预报效果与零场接近，T639和JP模式预报与实况相差较大。T639和EC模式对有利雾霾发生的静稳天气形势均有较好的中期预报能力，但对驱散雾霾的冷空气，EC模式预报与零场更加一致。
Abstract:The performance of medium range forecast is verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from September to November 2014. The results show that all the three models have good performance in predicting the variation and adjustment of atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas and the transition of temperature at 850 hPa. They also have good performance in predicting ridge line position of western Pacific subtropical high, but the deviation of EC is the smallest. EC is the best at forecasting the track and intensity of typhoon Fung wong among all the three models. EC and T639 can forecast fog and haze, but EC does even better than T639.
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基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| ZHAO Xiaolin | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
赵晓琳,2015.2014年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,41(2):247-253.
ZHAO Xiaolin,2015.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast for T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2014[J].Meteor Mon,41(2):247-253.
赵晓琳,2015.2014年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,41(2):247-253.
ZHAO Xiaolin,2015.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast for T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2014[J].Meteor Mon,41(2):247-253.