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投稿时间:2018-01-28 修订日期:2018-12-04
投稿时间:2018-01-28 修订日期:2018-12-04
中文摘要: 利用1971—2014年河南103个台站地面气象逐日观测资料和冬小麦产量资料,选择对产量有明显影响的拔节-抽穗期干旱作为天气指数保险设计的气象灾害类型,分析了河南冬小麦拔节-抽穗期干旱发生基本规律,并开展干旱风险评估。定义降水负距平百分率作为冬小麦干旱天气指数,并利用173组典型灾害样本建立了冬小麦拔节-抽穗期干旱天气指数与减产率的关系模型;在此基础上,初步设计了冬小麦干旱天气指数保险产品,并基于风险评估结果对天气指数产品费率进行修订。结果表明,河南冬小麦干旱程度总体由西南向东北增强;拔节-抽穗期,豫北地区的干旱风险最高;其次是豫西北、豫东和豫中;豫西南和豫南的风险相对较低;基于天气指数模型和历史赔付状况分析,将降水负距平百分率60%作为触发值,并确定了不同干旱天气指数等级的赔付标准;基于干旱风险评估结果修订后的河南各地区的天气指数保险费率在9.2%~11.2%,单位面积保费在29.8~36.3元·亩-1。
中文关键词: 干旱,天气指数,冬小麦,风险
Abstract:Based on surface meteorological observations and yield data of winter wheat at 103 stations in Henan Province from 1971 to 2014, the characteristics of winter wheat drought damage were analyzed. Besides, the drought condition at jointing-heading stage, which has a serious effect on yield was selected as a meteorological disaster type of the model design of the weather index insurance and the disaster risk assessment was carried out. Negative anomaly percentage of precipitation was defined as drought index of winter wheat and the model that described the relationship between drought index and yield reduction was also established using 173 groups of typical disaster samples. On this basis, the weather index insurance product of winter wheat drought damage was developed and the premium rates of different regions were revised based on the results of the drought risk assessment. The results showed that the level of winter wheat drought increases from the southwestern part to the northeastern part in Henan Province. During the jointing-heading stage, the highest risk was found in the northern part, followed by the northwestern, eastern and central parts, and the risk of the southwestern and the southern parts is relatively lower. Based on the drought index model and the analysis of historical payments, negative anomaly percentage of precipitation of 60% was considered as the payment trigger value, and the payment standards of different levels of drought weather index were determined. Considering the results of the drought risk assessment, the revised premium rates of different regions in Henan are 9.2%-11.2%, and corresponding premiums of unit area are 29.8-36.3 Yuan·mu-1.
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基金项目:中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室项目(AMF201605)和中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室开放研究基金项目(CAMF-201601)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
曹雯 | 中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州 450003 安徽省农业气象中心,合肥 230031 |
成林 | 中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州 450003 河南省气象科学研究所,郑州 450003 |
杨太明 | 安徽省农业气象中心,合肥 230031 |
许莹 | 安徽省农业气象中心,合肥 230031 |
引用文本:
曹雯,成林,杨太明,许莹,2019.河南省冬小麦拔节-抽穗期干旱天气指数保险研究[J].气象,45(2):274-281.
CAO Wen,CHENG Lin,YANG Taiming,XU Ying,2019.Study on Weather Index Insurance of Drought Damage at Jointing-Heading Stage of Winter Wheat in Henan Province[J].Meteor Mon,45(2):274-281.
曹雯,成林,杨太明,许莹,2019.河南省冬小麦拔节-抽穗期干旱天气指数保险研究[J].气象,45(2):274-281.
CAO Wen,CHENG Lin,YANG Taiming,XU Ying,2019.Study on Weather Index Insurance of Drought Damage at Jointing-Heading Stage of Winter Wheat in Henan Province[J].Meteor Mon,45(2):274-281.