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气象:2019,45(5):593-605
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不同要素谱逼近对高分辨区域数值模式梅雨模拟的改进
董美莹,陈锋,冀春晓
(浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州 310008)
Improving the Meiyu Simulation Using Spectral Nudging of Single Element and Multi Element in High Resolution Regional Numerical Model
DONG Meiying,CHEN Feng,JI Chunxiao
(Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou 310008)
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投稿时间:2018-05-03    修订日期:2018-08-29
中文摘要: 为改进高分辨率区域数值天气预报模式雨带模拟偏差,利用WRF模式探讨了不同要素及其组合谱逼近方法对2015年浙江典型梅雨天气预报性能的影响。结果表明:(1)不同单要素逼近对梅雨模拟效果影响差异明显,风场逼近对模拟结果改进较大,高度场逼近对结果略有改善,而温度场逼近主要表现为负效应;风场组合了其他要素的逼近效果与单要素类似,故将水平风场谱逼近确定为最优方案。(2)最优方案对梅雨期间形势场各要素改进程度的排序为纬向风、经向风、相对湿度、温度场和高度场;三个特征层850、500、200 hPa各要素平均的均方根误差(相关系数)分别降低了(增加了)24.1%(13.6%)、22.7%(21.7%)和13.0%(12.2%);且改进幅度随预报时效的延长而增加,这主要与区域模式内部大尺度系统的误差随积分时间增长有关。(3)典型个例分析显示,最优方案在较好订正低层风场及切变线动力条件的基础上,经过数值模式各物理过程的协同积分也修正了高湿区等关键热力因子,最终改进了高分辨率区域模式的梅雨模拟。
Abstract:This paper reviews the development of the technology for seamless fine gridded weather forecasting in China since 2014. And the key technical difficulties in the future development are analyzed. It is pointed out that the high spatio temporal resolution observations capturing the fine structure of weather systems, the analysis products by multi source data fusion, the real time rapid updating assimilation and prediction system, the high resolution regional model providing short time and short term weather prediction, the global numerical forecast model providing 10 days’ weather forecasting, and the ocean atmosphere coupled ensemble prediction system providing 46 days’ weather prediction, have jointly established the premise and foundation of the seamless gridded weather forecasts. After nearly 5 years’ exploration and constant efforts, the technology system of seamless fine gridded forecasting with different temporal resolutions has been established. The high frequency lagrangian extrapolation skills are used for 0-4 h forecasting based on GRAPES Meso model forecast products and radar data over China. For the 4 h to 30 d lead time forecasting, it mainly depends on the downscaling, error correction, model output statistics and post processing methodologies based on regional and global models of different spatio temporal resolutions to improve forecast skills and resolution. At the same time, automatic and intelligent interactive forecasting platform is developed to meet the demand of combining efficient objective forecasting with forecas ters’ subjective intelligence. In order to assess and track the performance of high resolution gridded forecasting, a spatial analysis verification method based on gridded observation data is developed. It is also stressed that the future gridded forecasting technology system should be able to reflect the latest technology development including the artificial intelligence application, more advanced statistical post processing skills, key technics for consistency forecasting and unified complete technical architecture and standards.
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基金项目:浙江省气象科技计划重点项目(2017ZD04)、浙江省科技计划项目(2017C03035)、国家气象科技创新工程“气象资料质量控制及多源数据融合与再分析”、华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目(QYHZ201805、QYHZ201611)及浙江省气象局青年科技项目(2017QN05)共同资助
引用文本:
董美莹,陈锋,冀春晓,2019.不同要素谱逼近对高分辨区域数值模式梅雨模拟的改进[J].气象,45(5):593-605.
DONG Meiying,CHEN Feng,JI Chunxiao,2019.Improving the Meiyu Simulation Using Spectral Nudging of Single Element and Multi Element in High Resolution Regional Numerical Model[J].Meteor Mon,45(5):593-605.