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投稿时间:2019-11-22 修订日期:2020-07-17
投稿时间:2019-11-22 修订日期:2020-07-17
中文摘要: 从大量研究工作中可知,人工智能(AI)技术可以用于改进强对流天气临近预报。重庆市气象局与百度公司合作,基于2008—2018年的天气雷达数据,采用TrajGRU技术,初步建立了三维雷达回波智能临近预报模型。结合地面观测资料和U net技术,对雷暴大风和冰雹进行智能识别。将以上技术用于降水、雷暴大风和冰雹的临近预报业务中。与SWAN产品相比,AI产品在回波演变预报方面有明显优势。雷达回波智能预报能力随时间降低的速度低于传统外推方法,对长时效雷达回波预报明显提升。降水智能预报较SWAN降水预报有一定程度提高。在2019年业务试运行过程中,雷暴大风、冰雹智能预报模型提前量分别为77和37 min。AI技术在重庆的强对流天气临近预警业务中的研究与应用已初见成效。
中文关键词: 雷达回波,人工智能,临近预报,业务应用
Abstract:Previous researches showed that the application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques could substantially improve severe convective weather nowcasting capabilities. Cooperating with Baidu Inc., Chongqing Meteorological Service preliminarily implemented the intelligent nowcasting model of three dimensional radar echo using TrajGRU technique based on the radar data of 2008-2018. Together with the ground observation data and the U net technique, the intelligent identification model of thunderstorm gale and hail were established. The AI techniques above were used to operational thunderstorm gale, hail and precipitation nowcasting. Compared to the operational products of the Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast (SWAN) system, AI products showed obvious improvement in the prediction of radar echo evolution. The intelligent prediction ability of radar echo decreased with time at a lower speed than that of the traditional extrapolation method, and the prediction for longer lead times was improved. Verification showed that AI precipitation forecast had a higher skill than SWAN to a certain extent. During the 2019 trial operational application period, the lead times of intelligent forecast model for thunderstorm gale and hail forecast were 77 min and 37 min, respectively. The research and application of AI techniques in the early warning of severe convective weather in Chongqing have achieved initial results.
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基金项目:重庆市基础研究与前沿探索项目(cstc2018jcyjAX0434)和重庆市气象局创新团队项目(ZHCXTD-201803)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
顾建峰 | 重庆市气象局,重庆 401147 |
周国兵 | 重庆市气象台,重庆 401147 |
刘伯骏 | 重庆市气象台,重庆 401147 |
聂磊 | 百度智能云事业部,北京 100193 |
张亚萍 | 重庆市气象台,重庆 401147 |
张勇 | 重庆市气象台,重庆 401147 |
吴胜刚 | 重庆市气象台,重庆 401147 |
引用文本:
顾建峰,周国兵,刘伯骏,聂磊,张亚萍,张勇,吴胜刚,2020.人工智能技术在重庆临近预报业务中的初步研究与应用[J].气象,46(10):1286-1296.
GU Jianfeng,ZHOU Guobing,LIU Bojun,NIE Lei,ZHANG Yaping,ZHANG Yong,WU Shenggang,2020.Study on Artificial Intelligence Technology and Its Application to Chongqing Operational Nowcasting[J].Meteor Mon,46(10):1286-1296.
顾建峰,周国兵,刘伯骏,聂磊,张亚萍,张勇,吴胜刚,2020.人工智能技术在重庆临近预报业务中的初步研究与应用[J].气象,46(10):1286-1296.
GU Jianfeng,ZHOU Guobing,LIU Bojun,NIE Lei,ZHANG Yaping,ZHANG Yong,WU Shenggang,2020.Study on Artificial Intelligence Technology and Its Application to Chongqing Operational Nowcasting[J].Meteor Mon,46(10):1286-1296.