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投稿时间:2019-06-11 修订日期:2020-08-11
投稿时间:2019-06-11 修订日期:2020-08-11
中文摘要: 针对搜寻海平面气压最小值位置确定热带气旋(TC)位置的方法(MSLP)应用于数值模式预报台风定位方法存在的不足,开展GFDL涡旋追踪技术(GVT)在本地化模式应用研究, 采用GVT和MSLP、搜寻500 hPa最大相对涡度值(VT500)和搜寻最小位势高度值(H500)等四种方法对四类不同路径台风定位定强分析结果表明:H500、VT500、MSLP方法定位路径均会出现不同程度的“锯齿”形不规则的摆动,尤其是VT500不规则摆动幅度最大,定位效果最差;GVT方法可以较好地修正“锯齿”形不规则的摆动,使得模式预报路径更接近实况,定位效果最好;在远离海岸线地区,H500、MSLP和GVT定位效果比较接近。从不同方法对台风中心最低气压定强误差可见,VT500方法误差最大,GVT方法误差最小,MSLP、H500方法误差介于VT500和GVT之间。四种方法对台风中心附近最大风速定强误差差别不大。2016—2018年业务应用评估结果表明:采用GVT技术建立的浙江台风定位定强系统对浙江区域中尺度模式和浙江快速更新同化预报系统台风预报质量有改进作用。
中文关键词: 台风,涡旋追踪,定位,定强,区域数值模式
Abstract:The most common tropical cyclone (TC) center identification method for searching for minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) still has some shortcomings. In this paper, TC center identification method and intensity estimation method based on GFDL vortex tracker technique (GVT) are studied in the regional numerical weather prediction model application. Detailed comparisons are conducted between GVT and three traditional TC center location and intensity estimation techniques which include MSLP, the method of using maximum vorticity value at 500 hPa (VT500), and the method of using minimum geopotential height at 500 hPa (H500). The results show that using H500, VT500 and MSLP methods to determine TC center location, can generate some degrees of zigzag shaped irregular swing paths, especially the VT500 method. The VT500 method has the largest irregular swing amplitude and the positioning result is the worst. GVT method can better correct the zigzag shaped swing path and make the model prediction path closer to the observed one, so its positioning result is the best. However, the positioning results of H500, MSLP and GVT are relatively close when the typhoon location is far away from the coastline. The errors of the minimum pressure of TC center by these four methods show that the VT500 method has the largest error, the GVT method has the smallest error, and the errors by MSLP and H500 methods are between those of VT500 and GVT. The errors of maximum wind speed near the TC center by four methods show the errors of the four methods are not much different. The operational application assessment in 2016-2018 show that the Zhejiang Typhoon Vortex Tracker System based on GVT technology can improve the prediction quality of Zhejiang WRF ADAS Regional Model System and Zhejiang WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(41675044)、浙江省气象科技计划项目(2013ZD01 6,2017ZD05)和中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题( 2018LASW B05)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
余贞寿 | 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州 310008;中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081 |
冀春晓 | 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州 310008 |
张红蕾 | 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州 310008 |
段晶晶 | 浙江省宁波市气象台,宁波 315012 |
引用文本:
余贞寿,冀春晓,张红蕾,段晶晶,2020.涡旋追踪技术在浙江区域模式台风定位定强中的应用研究[J].气象,46(11):1461-1473.
YU Zhenshou,JI Chunxiao,ZHANG Honglei,DUAN Jingjing,2020.Application of GFDL Vortex Tracker Technique to the Zhejiang Regional NWP Models[J].Meteor Mon,46(11):1461-1473.
余贞寿,冀春晓,张红蕾,段晶晶,2020.涡旋追踪技术在浙江区域模式台风定位定强中的应用研究[J].气象,46(11):1461-1473.
YU Zhenshou,JI Chunxiao,ZHANG Honglei,DUAN Jingjing,2020.Application of GFDL Vortex Tracker Technique to the Zhejiang Regional NWP Models[J].Meteor Mon,46(11):1461-1473.