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投稿时间:2020-07-21 修订日期:2021-06-04
投稿时间:2020-07-21 修订日期:2021-06-04
中文摘要: 基于湖南省97个国家站1981—2018年共38年的逐日降水资料、常规高空、地面观测资料、ERA-Interim再分析资料和台风路径资料,采用气候统计、天气学分析和分类合成方法,分析了湖南省极端降水的气候特征,并对影响系统进行了分型研究,结果表明:38年间,湖南省日极端降水阈值均值是71.6 mm,年均出现130站次极端降水日,二者年际变化大;在1993年有一个明显的突变,1993年前日极端降水阈值均值低(65.7 mm)、极端降水日站次少(99 次·a-1);1993年后均值高(74.7 mm)、极端降水日多(146 次·a-1)。日极端降水阈值和极端降水日的空间分布不均,湘中及以北地区阈值高,极端降水强度大,出现频次低,湘南地区阈值低,极端降水强度小,出现频次高。湖南省区域性极端降水过程主要发生在5—8月,6月最多,按主要影响系统分为五类:西南涡-暖式切变线型、冷槽切变线型、台风型、副热带高压边缘型和一致南风型。湖南极端降水的主要影响系统是高空槽、西南涡、切变线和低空急流,如果西南涡未出西南地区或位置偏南,湖南极端降水由西南涡和暖式切变线产生,如果西南涡位置偏北,或者武陵山脉东侧有新生涡发展加强,则湖南极端降水由西南涡(新生涡)后侧冷式切变线产生。地形对极端降水的增幅作用明显,尤其是对于湘东南台风极端降水过程。不同季节副热带高压对极端降水的落区和强度有不同影响。对于弱强迫背景下的暖区极端降水,应加强高时空分辨率资料的应用,分析其中小尺度触发机制。
中文关键词: 极端降水,气候特征,分型,合成分析
Abstract:Based on the daily precipitation data at 97 national stations in Hunan Province from 1981 to 2018, conventional observation data, ERA-Interim data and typhoon path data, the climatic statistics method, meteorological analysis method and composite synthesis method are used to analyze the climatic characteristics of extreme precipitation in Hunan Province and their weather system types. The results show that during the past 38 years, the average threshold of the daily extreme precipitation in Hunan Province was 71.6 mm, and there were 130 extreme precipitation days per year. Both the values had large interannual variability, and there was a significant change in 1993. Before 1993, the average threshold of the daily extreme precipitation was low (65.7 mm), and there were only 99 extreme precipitation days per year; after 1993, the average threshold was high (74.7 mm), and there were 146 extreme precipitation days per year. The spatial distributions of daily extreme precipitation thresholds and extreme precipitation days were uneven. In central Hunan and areas north to it, the thresholds of extreme precipitation were high, the intensity of extreme precipitation was strong, and the frequency of occurrence was low. But in the south of Hunan, the threshold was low, the intensity of extreme precipitation was weak and the frequency of occurrence was high. The regional extreme precipitation processes of Hunan mainly occur from May to August, especially in June. Five types for weather systems of extreme precipitation processes are summarized: the southwest vortex and warm shear line type, the cold trough and shear line type, the typhoon type, the subtropical high edge type, the consistent southerly wind type. The main influence systems of extreme precipitation in Hunan are upper trough, southwest vortex, shear line and low-level jet. If the southwest vortex does not move out of the southwest region of China or its location is to the south, the extreme precipitation in Hunan will be caused by the southwest vortex and warm shear line, and if the location of southwest vortex is to the north, or there is a new vortex developing and strengthening on the east side of Wuling Mountains, then the extreme precipitation in Hunan will be caused by the cold shear line behind the southwest vortex (new vortex). The topography has a significant effect on the increase of extreme precipitation, especially on the extreme precipitation process of typhoon in southeastern Hunan. In different seasons, the subtropical high has different effects on the area and intensity of extreme precipitation. For the extreme precipitation in the warm zone under the background of weak forcing, the application of high spatio-temporal resolution data should be strengthened to analyze the meso- and small-scale trigger mechanism.
keywords: extreme precipitation, climatic characteristic, weather system classification, composite analysis
文章编号: 中图分类号:P456,P466 文献标志码:
基金项目:湖南省气象局预报员专项(XQKJ19C004、XQKJ19C011)共同资助
Author Name | Affiliation |
CHEN Hongzhuan | Huaihua Meteorological Office of Hunan Province, Huaihua 418000 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Hunan, Changsha 410118 |
引用文本:
陈红专,2021.湖南极端降水的气候特征及天气系统分型研究[J].气象,47(10):1219-1232.
CHEN Hongzhuan,2021.Climatic Characteristics and Weather System Classification of Extreme Precipitation in Hunan Province[J].Meteor Mon,47(10):1219-1232.
陈红专,2021.湖南极端降水的气候特征及天气系统分型研究[J].气象,47(10):1219-1232.
CHEN Hongzhuan,2021.Climatic Characteristics and Weather System Classification of Extreme Precipitation in Hunan Province[J].Meteor Mon,47(10):1219-1232.