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气象:2021,47(10):1246-1254
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安徽省沿江地区油菜菌核病气象等级评估方法
岳伟,陈曦,刘瑞娜,姚卫平,陈春秋,马洪管,蒋跃林
(安徽省农业气象中心,合肥 230031;安徽省池州市农业技术推广中心,池州 247000;安徽省桐城市农业技术推广中心,桐城 231400;安徽省植物保护总站,合肥 230001;安徽农业大学资源与环境学院,合肥 230036)
Meteorological Grade Evaluation Method of Sclerotinia Sclerotiorum for Oilseed Rape in the Region Along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province
YUE Wei,CHEN Xi,LIU Ruina,YAO Weiping,CHEN Chunqiu,MA Hongguan,JIANG Yuelin
(Anhui Agricultural Meteorological Centre, Hefei 230031;Chizhou Agro-Technical Extension and Service Centre of Anhui Province, Chizhou 247000;Tongcheng Agro-Technical Extension and Service Centre of Anhui Province, Tongcheng 231400;Anhui Plant Protection Station, Hefei 230001;School of Resources and Environment of Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036)
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投稿时间:2020-08-17    修订日期:2021-08-16
中文摘要: 为进一步明确安徽省沿江地区油菜菌核病发生关键时段和主要影响气象因子,提高对菌核病的监测评估能力,利用1995—2019年安徽省池州市、桐城市油菜菌核病病株率资料和逐日气象资料,通过线性相关、回归分析等方法,建立基于降水和温度的菌核病气象等级评估模型,并对模型进行回代检验和模拟验证。结果表明:3月下旬至5月上旬是池州市和桐城市油菜菌核病茎秆发病的关键期。降水是影响菌核病发生的主要气象因子,适宜的温度可以促进菌核病的发生。引入雨量系数和温度系数构建的综合气象条件指数,能较好地反映降水和温度对油菜菌核病的综合影响。池州市油菜菌核病气象等级评估模型的回代准确率和模拟准确率分别为86.2%和85.0%,桐城市则分别为83.8%和85.0%,因而建立的模型可用于安徽省沿江地区菌核病的监测评估。
Abstract:In order to identify the meteorological factor and key peroid of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum for oilseed rape over the region along the Yangtze River, and improve the ability of monitoring and evaluating, this paper builds a meteorological grade evaluation model based on precipitation and temperature, using the data including infected plant rate of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum for oilseed rape and daily meteorological data from 1995 to 2019 in Chizhou and Tongcheng, Anhui Province, by the means of linear correlation and regression analysis. Then the fitting test and validation are carried out for the model. The results show that the key period of stem infected is from the late March to the early May. Precipitation is the main meteorological factor affecting the occurrence of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, and the appropriate temperature could promote the occurrence of Sclerotinia.The comprehensive meteorological index formed by introducing the precipitation coefficient and temperature coefficient, could effectively indicate the comprehensive effect of precipitation and temperature on the Sclerotinia sclerotiorum. The accuracies of the evaluation model for simulation and validation are 86.2% and 85.0% in Chizhou, and 83.8% and 85.0% in Tongcheng, respectively. Therefore, the model established in this study can be used for the monitoring and evaluation of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in the areas along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province.
文章编号:     中图分类号:S16,P49    文献标志码:
基金项目:“科技助力经济2020”重点专项(KJZLJJ202002)和安徽省气象局研究型业务科技攻关项目(YJG202103)共同资助
引用文本:
岳伟,陈曦,刘瑞娜,姚卫平,陈春秋,马洪管,蒋跃林,2021.安徽省沿江地区油菜菌核病气象等级评估方法[J].气象,47(10):1246-1254.
YUE Wei,CHEN Xi,LIU Ruina,YAO Weiping,CHEN Chunqiu,MA Hongguan,JIANG Yuelin,2021.Meteorological Grade Evaluation Method of Sclerotinia Sclerotiorum for Oilseed Rape in the Region Along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province[J].Meteor Mon,47(10):1246-1254.