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气象:2024,50(8):981-996
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岷沱江、嘉陵江流域致宜昌大洪水暴雨过程的特征及天气成因
王孝慈,孟英杰,李双君,王继竹,李波
(武汉中心气象台,武汉 430074; 长江流域气象中心,武汉 430074; 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所 中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室/暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉 430205;三峡国家气候观象台,湖北宜昌 443099; 三峡梯调通信中心,湖北宜昌 443000)
Characteristics and Weather Causes of Heavy Flood-Causing Rainstorm in Yichang in the Mintuo River and Jialing River Basins
WANG Xiaoci, MENG Yingjie, LI Shuangjun, WANG Jizhu, LI Bo
(Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074; Meteorological Center of the Yangtze River Basin, Wuhan 430074; China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory/Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430205; Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory, Hubei, Yichang 443099; Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch and Communication Center, Hubei, Yichang 443000)
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投稿时间:2023-09-19    修订日期:2024-03-20
中文摘要: 为揭示岷沱江、嘉陵江流域致大洪水暴雨过程的天气成因及宜昌控制站雨洪规律,加深对宜昌站大洪水发生发展机制的研究,基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及常规气象水文观测资料,采用统计学、天气学等方法分析研究了1980—2020年发生在岷沱江、嘉陵江流域的19例致洪暴雨过程特征、雨洪关系、致洪暴雨源地及下垫面特征、天气系统配置等。结果表明:宜昌作为长江流域主要控制站,当前期起始入库流量达到19 000 m3·s-1以上,且刚好遭遇连续性暴雨过程,则发生大洪水概率会显著提高。从岷沱江或嘉陵江的连续性暴雨过程开始至洪峰产生所需时长平均在6 d左右。暴雨持续时间和累计面雨量与洪峰有较好的对应关系,每次大洪水的形成都需要一次持续3 d以上的暴雨过程,多数在4~6 d。大洪水过程全部发生在7—9月。致洪暴雨过程以准静止类雨带为主,其次是东移类和转向类。89%的过程雨带呈东北—西南向的带状分布。强降水中心源地与特殊地形关系密切,主要分布于3处:岷江下游与青衣江交汇处,转向类降水多发;嘉陵江中下游、涪江流域及渠江流域,多以准静止类为主;涪江中游及渠江流域北部,东移类暴雨过程多发。孟加拉湾热带低压系统的存在对上游产生连续性暴雨至关重要,其次是南海地区的低值系统,两者参与过程占比达68%。低压系统不仅为岷沱江、嘉陵江流域带来充足能量和水汽,其东侧水汽的卷入容易在岷沱江、嘉陵江流域触发低涡,再配合特殊地形,产生强的上升运动。降水过程分为准静止持续性降水和移动性持续降水2类。易发大洪水的天气概念模型有3类:Ⅰ型为西太平洋副热带高压边缘、西风短波东移触发暴雨型,Ⅱ型为青藏高原低值系统东移触发暴雨型,Ⅲ型为低层偏东气流暴雨型。
Abstract:To reveal the weather causes of the rainstorm process that caused the heavy flood in the Mintuo River and Jialing River basins, the rainfall and flood law at Yichang Control Station, and to deepen the research on the occurrence and development mechanism of heavy flood at Yichang Station, based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the conventional meteorological and hydrological observation data, this paper analyzes the characteristics of 19 flood-causing rainstorm processes that occurred in the Mintuo River and Jialing River basins from 1980 to 2020 by means of statistical and synoptic methods. At the sametime, the relationship between rainstorm and flood, flood-causing rainstorm source, underlying surface characteristics, and weather system configuration, etc. are also analyzed. The results show that as the main control station in the Yangtze River Basin, Yichang Station has an initial inflow of more than 19 000 m3·s-1 in the current period, and it just encounters a continuous rainstorm process, so the probability of major floods is greatly increased. The duration from the beginning of the continuous rainstorm process in Mintuo River or Jialing River to the flood peak is about 6 days on average. The rainstorm duration and accumulated area rainfall have a good corresponding relationship with the flood peak. The formation of each major flood requires a rainstorm process lasting more than 3 days, mostly 4-6 days. All of the flood processes occur from July to September. The process of flood-causing rainstorm is dominated by quasi-static rain belt, followed by easterly type and turning type. 89% of the process rain bands are distributed in a northeast-southwest direction. The central source of severe precipitation is closely related to special terrain, mainly distributed in three places: first, the intersection of the lower reaches of the Minjiang River and the Qingyi River, where turning precipitation mostly occurs; second, the middle and lower reaches of the Jia-ling River, the Fujiang River Basin, and the Qujiang River Basin are mostly of quasi-static type; third, in the middle reaches of the Fujiang River and the northern part of the Qujiang River Basin, the eastward moving rainstorm process often occurs here. The existence of the Bay of Bengal tropical depression system is critical to the continuous rainstorm in the upstream, followed by the low value system in the South China Sea, which accounts for 68% of the process. The depression system not only brings enough energy and water vapor to the Mintuo River and Jialing River basins, but the involvement of water vapor on its eastern side can easily trigger low vortexes in the Mintuo River and Jialing River basins, combined with special terrain, resulting in strong upward motion. The precipitation process is divided into two categories: quasi-static persistent precipitation and mobile persistent precipitation. There are three types of synoptic conceptual models that are prone to major floods. Type Ⅰ is rainstorm type triggered by westerly short-wave eastward movement at the edge of Western Pacific subtropical high. Type Ⅱ is the rainstorm type triggered by the eastward movement of the low value system of the Tibetan Plateau. Type Ⅲ is a low-level easterly air flow rainstorm type.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P429,P339    文献标志码:
基金项目:湖北省自然科学基金项目(2023AFD099)和中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(2423020002)共同资助
引用文本:
王孝慈,孟英杰,李双君,王继竹,李波,2024.岷沱江、嘉陵江流域致宜昌大洪水暴雨过程的特征及天气成因[J].气象,50(8):981-996.
WANG Xiaoci,MENG Yingjie,LI Shuangjun,WANG Jizhu,LI Bo,2024.Characteristics and Weather Causes of Heavy Flood-Causing Rainstorm in Yichang in the Mintuo River and Jialing River Basins[J].Meteor Mon,50(8):981-996.