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投稿时间:2025-04-29 修订日期:2026-06-02
投稿时间:2025-04-29 修订日期:2026-06-02
中文摘要: 根据我国建筑结构和主要架空输电线路设计标准,基于广义极值分布理论,利用历史地面气象监测数据,计算气象观测站的不同重现期基本风压,选取台风影响期间最大风产生的最大风压、极大风产生的极大风压作为致灾因子,结合不同类型输电线路(低压、中压、高压、超高压及以上)的风压致灾阈值指标,构建台风大风对输电线路致灾性评估模型。根据台风大风对输电线路的影响情况,将致灾等级划分为中、较高、高、极高4个等级,并给出对应的不同输电线路的灾害影响。利用2012—2023年中国气象局气象灾害管理系统灾情数据,对评估模型结果进行合理性检验:在台风造成输电线路损坏或供电中断的205个样本中,模型评估出183个样本有输电线路致灾风险,准确率为89.3%;台风级及以上强度登陆我国台风造成电力受灾的有162个样本,模型评估出146个样本有输电线路致灾风险,准确率为90.1%,其中中、较高、高、极高等级样本数分别占总样本数的26.5%、36.4%、14.8%、12.3%;模型总体评估效果较好。该模型可结合台风预报或实况数据,进行灾前预评估以及灾后的快速评估,为面向电力行业的台风气象服务提供参考。
中文关键词: 台风大风,风压,输电线路,致灾性,评估
Abstract:Based on China’s design codes for building structures and major overhead transmission lines, this study adopts the generalized extreme value distribution theory and historical surface meteorological observation data to calculate the basic wind pressures at different return-periods for meteorological observation stations. The maximum wind pressure generated by the maximum wind and the extreme wind pressure generated by extreme wind are taken as the disaster-inducing factors of typhoon-generated strong wind for transmission lines, and a disaster assessment model is established by combining the wind pressure disaster threshold indicators of different types of transmission lines: low-voltage, medium-voltage, high-voltage, and ultra-high voltage and above. According to the impact of typhoon-generated strong wind on transmission lines, the disaster level is divided into four grades: medium, relatively high, high and extremely high, and the corresponding disaster impacts on different types of transmission lines are specified. The disaster data from the meteorological disaster management system of the China Meteorological Administration between 2012 and 2023 are used to verify the rationality of the developed disaster assessment model for transmission lines under typhoon-generated strong wind. Among the 205 samples with transmission line damage or power supply interruption caused by typhoons, the model identifies 183 samples with disaster risk on transmission lines, achieving an assessment accuracy of 89.3%. Out of the 162 samples of power disasters caused by typhoons with typhoon-level or above intensity landing in China, the model identifies 146 samples with disaster risk on transmission lines. Among these, the proportions of samples with medium, relatively high, high and extremely high grades in the total samples are 26.5%, 36.4%, 14.8% and 12.3% respectively, and the assessment accuracy reaches 90.1%, indicating that the overall performance of the model is satisfactory. The developed assessment model can conduct disaster pre-assessment and rapid post-assessment by combining typhoon forecast or observation data. Thus provide reference for typhoon meteorological services for the power industry.
keywords: typhoon-generated strong wind, wind pressure, transmission line, disaster risk, assessment
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基金项目:中国气象局决策气象服务专项(JCZX2022013)、国家重点研发计划(2020YFE0201900)和国家气象中心创新团队气象灾害风险预警团队共同资助
引用文本:
李佳英,王韫喆,王莉萍,张立生,2026.台风大风对输电线路致灾性的评估[J].气象,52(7):869-879.
LI Jiaying,WANG Yunzhe,WANG Liping,ZHANG Lisheng,2026.Assessment on the Disaster Risk of Typhoon-Generated Strong Wind to Transmission Lines[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):869-879.
李佳英,王韫喆,王莉萍,张立生,2026.台风大风对输电线路致灾性的评估[J].气象,52(7):869-879.
LI Jiaying,WANG Yunzhe,WANG Liping,ZHANG Lisheng,2026.Assessment on the Disaster Risk of Typhoon-Generated Strong Wind to Transmission Lines[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):869-879.
