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气象:2008,34(1):3-11
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新一代天气雷达在临近预报和灾害性天气警报中的应用
(中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081)
Applications of New Generation Weather Radar to Nowcasting and Warning of Severe Weather
(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Scien ces, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2007-09-20    修订日期:2007-12-07
中文摘要: 利用新一代天气雷达制作临近天气预报和灾害性天气警报,必须从天气雷达观测入手。 需根据临近预报和灾害性天气警报需求制定观测方法。不同预报对象,要采取不同的雷达资 料的数据处理方法,以便突出预报对象的回波特征。制作临近预报和灾害性天气警报的主要 依据是雷达回波分析,掌握回波演变的全过程是雷达回波分析的基础,根据回波特征判断识 别影响本地区的天气系统,通过回波分析判断回波的未来发展趋势。为了从回波上识别灾害 性天气,需要建立各种灾害性天气的识别判据和方法。预报的主要方法是外推法,但预报结 果还需要预报员根据预报经验最后作出预报结论。为了做好临近预报和灾害性天气警报,建 立预报流程是非常重要的。
Abstract:Making nowcasting and severe weather warning by New Generation Weather Radar nee d to Start from radar observations. Different weather systems must to use diffe rent methods of radar observations. Different observation methods and different f orcast objects must to use different process methods of radar data for stressin g echo characters. Nowcasting and severe weather warning are producted on the bas is of radar echo analyses. Radar echo analyses need to grasp whole process of ec ho evolutions. Synoptic systems of impacting local weather are resolved accordin g to the echo analyses. Severe weathers are distinguished with [JP2]echo charact ers, future development trends of echo are understood by echo evolutions. For identified severe weathers with radar echos, signature recognitions and discerning means are built by the researches and the statistics of radar echoes. The main nowcasting method is the extrapolation, but the forcast experience is most important. The conclusion of the nowcasting is drawn by the forecasters bas ed on their forecast experiences. Nowcasting technological processes needs to be formulated for better nowcasting and severe weather warning.
keywords: nowcasting  CINRAD  radar echo
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基金项目:本文受国家自然科学基金项目(40375006)和武汉暴雨研究所开放基金课题(IHR20053)资助
引用文本:
张沛源,杨洪平,胡绍萍,2008.新一代天气雷达在临近预报和灾害性天气警报中的应用[J].气象,34(1):3-11.
Zhang Peiyuan,Yang Hongping,Hu shaoping,2008.Applications of New Generation Weather Radar to Nowcasting and Warning of Severe Weather[J].Meteor Mon,34(1):3-11.