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投稿时间：2008-03-23 修订日期：2008-05-06
投稿时间：2008-03-23 修订日期：2008-05-06
中文摘要: 在气象经济学领域，如何科学定量地评估气象因子对各行各业的影响是一项十分重要 的工作。引入规范的协整理论来定量分析气温变化对南京市主要行业的影响。采用年平均气 温序列及各行业的产值序列，首先在严格的检验下证实这两者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系 ；然后通过建立协整回归方程和误差修正模型分别定量分析了这两者之间的长期和短期影响 ；最后用Granger因果检验做了进一步的证实。主要结果是：从长期影响看，气温升高对所 讨论的各行业均存在一定的正向促进作用；从短期影响看，气温升高对各行业的影响则有正 有负。结果证明气温变化的确对南京市主要行业存在影响，同时协整理论为气象部门科学定 量评估气象因子对行业经济的影响提供了可行的途径。
Abstract:It is important to evaluate the meteorological influences to industries in the m eteorological economic filed. Co integration theory was used to research the im pact of temperature variation on the main industries in Nanjing. First, it was p roved that there was a co integration relationship between temperature and indu stries′ production value. Then, on the basis of co integration regression equation and error correction mode (ECM), the long term and short t erm impacts of temperature variation were investigated quantitatively. At last, the result of Granger test emphasized our outcomes. It shows that the temperatur e variation really could affect the main industries′ economic s: when temperature rose, the industries′ production values would increase in the long term, but some industries would decline in the short term. So, co i ntegration theory is a reasonable way to evaluate industries′ meteorological se nsitivities.
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基金项目:中国气象局气象软科学项目《提高气象现代化水平和发挥现代化建设 效益若干问题研究》、江苏省气象局项目《江苏省气象灾害应急管理机制研究》
引用文本：
孙宁,李廉水,严明良,2008.基于协整理论的气温变化对南京市主要行业的影响研究[J].气象,34(9):97-103.
Sun Ning,Li Lianshui,Yan Mingliang,2008.Study of the Impact of Temperature Variation on the Nanjing Main Industries Based on Co integration Theory [J].Meteor Mon,34(9):97-103.
孙宁,李廉水,严明良,2008.基于协整理论的气温变化对南京市主要行业的影响研究[J].气象,34(9):97-103.
Sun Ning,Li Lianshui,Yan Mingliang,2008.Study of the Impact of Temperature Variation on the Nanjing Main Industries Based on Co integration Theory [J].Meteor Mon,34(9):97-103.