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投稿时间:2007-12-11 修订日期:2008-09-27
投稿时间:2007-12-11 修订日期:2008-09-27
中文摘要: 确定最终热阱系统的容量时,必须规定设计基准气象参数,首先确认了内陆核电站最终热阱
关键气象参数之一为空气湿球温度。选取湖北大畈核电站拟选站址所在地通山县气象站的三
种湿球温度数据序列——近10年最热月日最高值、历年最热月日最高值、历年最高值,分别
用对数、Gumbel及多项式等3种曲线进行概率拟合,并分别计算了不同重现期的参数值。结
果表明:日资料拟合的极值略高于历年最高值的拟合结果,历年最高值的拟合值更接近于实
际情况;多项式拟合尽管拟合效果好,但有一个不可突破的最大值,显然具有局限性;选取
近10年最热月日最高值进行拟合,可以弥补缺乏长期观测的不足;Gumbel曲线拟合概率误差
比对数曲线的小。最终推荐采用Gumbel曲线对历年最高值进行拟合,湖北大畈核电站50年、
100年、500年、1000年重现期湿球温度的极值分别为:30.3℃、30.5℃、31.1℃和31.3℃。
Abstract:The wet bulb temperature among key meteorological parameters of final heat sink
of inland nuclear power is determined as air wet bulb temperature. According to
daily maximum air wet bulb temperature of hottest month for last 10a and for las
t 30a, and yearly maximum air wet bulb temperature for last 30a from Tongshan me
teorological station near the Dafan Nuclear Power Plant, three kinds of curves i
ncluding logarithm, Gumbel and polynomials curves are used to fit the distributi
on of the probability with maximum air wet bulb temperature and to calculate the
possible value once for different periods. The result suggests that yearly maxi
mum air wet bulb temperature for more than 30a and Gumbel curve fitting are suit
able for calculating of parameter,although polynomial curve fitting is best, a
maximum value can’t be overpass that limits its further application. Accordin
g to the yearly maximum fitted by Gumbel curve, the final extreme valueonce for 50a, 100a, 500a, 1000a are 30.3℃, 30.5℃, 31.1℃ and 31.3℃ respectiv
ely for the Dafan nuclear power plant.
keywords: nuclear power station final heat sink air wet bulb temperature probability fi
tting extreme value
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:湖北省发展与改革委员会核电项目筹备处资助
Author Name | Affiliation |
Yuan Yechang | Wuhan Regional Climate Center, 430074 |
Chen Zhenghong | Wuhan Regional Climate Center, 430074 |
引用文本:
袁业畅,陈正洪,2008.大畈核电站拟址空气湿球温度推算[J].气象,34(11):69-73.
Yuan Yechang,Chen Zhenghong,2008.Calculation of the Wet Bulb Temperature Among Key Meteorological Parameters of Final Heat Sink of Inland Nuclear Power Station[J].Meteor Mon,34(11):69-73.
袁业畅,陈正洪,2008.大畈核电站拟址空气湿球温度推算[J].气象,34(11):69-73.
Yuan Yechang,Chen Zhenghong,2008.Calculation of the Wet Bulb Temperature Among Key Meteorological Parameters of Final Heat Sink of Inland Nuclear Power Station[J].Meteor Mon,34(11):69-73.