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投稿时间:2008-12-02 修订日期:2009-02-18
投稿时间:2008-12-02 修订日期:2009-02-18
中文摘要: 利用因子选取及方程建立人机交互平台,建立了云南省125个气象站的降水、温度
客观要素预报方程。对比试验表明,绝大多数组合因子都优于单因子,组合因子预报方程的
质量普遍比单因子预报方程好。预报检验结果显示,干季的降水预报尚未达到可用程度,雨
季小雨及中雨、大雨的预报有一定业务指导意义,对于反映中小尺度系统的暴雨天气预报效
果较差,在因子的选择上还需要做大量细致的工作。温度预报具有一定的参考价值,但还有
待进一步改进。
Abstract:The human computer interaction platform and element forecasting equation of 125
weather stations in Yunnan Province which included the elements of rainfall and
temperature were set up by using factor selection and prediction equation. Comp
arison tests indicated that vast majority of combined factors were more efficien
t than single factor, and the equation forecasting quality by using combined fac
tors was better than that by using single factor. The forecasting test results s
howed that the precipitation forecasting in dry season had not been available ye
t, but the forecasting on light rain, moderate rain and heavy rain in rainy seas
on could guide forecasting operation to some extent. For the storm rainfall even
ts which reflect the meso or small scale system, the forecasting effects were po
or. Therefore, lots ofmeticulous works about factor selection need
to be done. Furthermore, temperature prediction was valuable for reference, but
it also needs to be improved further.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:云南省科技攻关及高新技术计划2006SG25
Author Name | Affiliation |
Xu Meiling | Yunnan Meteorological Observatory, Kunming 650034 |
Duan Xu | Meteorological Sciences Institute of Yunnan Province |
Ding Sheng | Yuxi Meteorological Observatory |
引用文本:
许美玲,段旭,丁圣,2009.客观预报方程中因子的选取及应用效果分析[J].气象,35(9):112-118.
Xu Meiling,Duan Xu,Ding Sheng,2009.Factor Selection and Analysis on Application Effects of the Objective Forecasting Equation[J].Meteor Mon,35(9):112-118.
许美玲,段旭,丁圣,2009.客观预报方程中因子的选取及应用效果分析[J].气象,35(9):112-118.
Xu Meiling,Duan Xu,Ding Sheng,2009.Factor Selection and Analysis on Application Effects of the Objective Forecasting Equation[J].Meteor Mon,35(9):112-118.