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投稿时间:2009-12-23 修订日期:2010-07-16
投稿时间:2009-12-23 修订日期:2010-07-16
中文摘要: 使用Barnes和最近台站降水频率相结合的混合插值方案,对我国气象台站和水文站组成的高密度降水观测资料进行精细化的网格插值,得到分辨率与GRAPES_Meso(以下简称GRAPES)模式分辨率相同(0.15°)的网格降水资料;同时,将GRAPES模式同分辨率的0~24 h格点定量降水预报结果插值到观测站点上,然后进行了“格点对格点”、“站点对站点”的评分检验。检验的统计量包括偏差(BIA)、公平T评分(ETS)和真实技巧评分(TSS)。此外,还基于插值后的精细化格点降水资料,应用近来发展的“面向目标”的客观检验方法检验了5 mm以上降水事件的预报效果。对检验结果的分析表明:(1)两种点对点检验方法的结果都显示GRAPES 模式在我国东部的预报效果好于西部,平原地区好于山区;地形的迎风坡降水的空报偏多,而青藏高原上空和新疆北部则以漏报为主,即模式对复杂地形影响的降水预报能力偏弱。(2)对于各量级的降水,总体上格点检验的结果好于站点检验,格点检验能更好地代表GRAPES模式的预报能力。(3)对于5 mm以上的降水事件,GRAPES 模式预报的总次数与雨团直径的分布关系和观测基本一致,特别是模式对直径为60 km的雨团预报效果最好;从地域分布来看,GRAPES 模式预报5 mm以上降水的次数在内蒙古东部、东北、华北、江淮、陕西、甘肃南部等地与观测相当,而在长江以南多于观测,尤其是在西南地区东部预报次数明显偏多。
Abstract:The high density precipitation data from both meteorological and hydrological observations in China are interpolated to fine mesh grid at a resolution of 0.15° by combining the Barnes scheme with precipitation frequency, then 0-24 h quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from GRAPES_Meso is interpolated to the station spot. The QPF has been verified against two datasets using BIA, ETS and TSS. Moreover, an object based verification developed recently is carried out to verify the rain cluster more than 5 mm. The results are as follows: (1) For all thresholds, the QPF exhibits a higher performance in the east part of China than that in the west, as well as more skillful in plain areas than in mountainous ones. The model forecasts more events above the threshold than observed in the upwind side of mountains (overforecasting) while the model forecasts less events than observations for interior Tibet and the north of Xinjiang (underforecasting). (2) As a whole, the scores calculated for the verifications against gridded observations have shown that the model performs better than could be anticipated from local observations, thus gridded observations better represent the gridbox behavior described by the model. (3) For the threshold more than 5 mm, the distribution of number against the cluster size of the QPF is similar to observations. Especially, the best forecast is to the cluster size of 60 km. As for spatial distributions, in the east of Inner Mongolia, the Northeast China, North China, the region between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, Shaanxi Province as well as the south of Gansu Province, numbers of QPF are almost the same as observed ones, but more to the south of Yangtze River, especially in the east part of Southwest China.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金(40675062),中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2010Y29)和“十一五”科技支撑项目(2006BAC02B03)共同资助
Author Name | Affiliation |
XIONG Qiufen | China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本:
熊秋芬,2011.GRAPES_Meso模式的降水格点检验和站点检验分析[J].气象,37(2):185-193.
XIONG Qiufen,2011.Verification of GRAPES-Meso Precipitation Forecasts Based on Fine Mesh and Station Datasets[J].Meteor Mon,37(2):185-193.
熊秋芬,2011.GRAPES_Meso模式的降水格点检验和站点检验分析[J].气象,37(2):185-193.
XIONG Qiufen,2011.Verification of GRAPES-Meso Precipitation Forecasts Based on Fine Mesh and Station Datasets[J].Meteor Mon,37(2):185-193.