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投稿时间：2012-09-18 修订日期：2012-10-10
投稿时间：2012-09-18 修订日期：2012-10-10
中文摘要: 对2012年6—8月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本（文中简称JP）数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明：三家模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。比较而言，EC模式对各系统及要素的预报更接近实况。对于1211号强台风海葵（Haikui）的路径及强度预报，EC模式预报效果与零场接近，T639模式和日本模式预报与实况相差较大。
Abstract:The performance of medium range forecast is verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from June to August 2012. The results show that the three models have good performance on predicting the variation and adjustment of atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas. Comparatively speaking, EC has better performance on forecasting synoptic systems and elements than T639 and JP models, and is the best at the prediction of the track and intensity of typhoon Haikui among all models.
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基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| ZHAO Xiaolin | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
赵晓琳,2012.2012年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,38(11):1423-1428.
ZHAO Xiaolin,2012.The Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast for T639， ECMWF and Japan Models from June to August 2012[J].Meteor Mon,38(11):1423-1428.
赵晓琳,2012.2012年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,38(11):1423-1428.
ZHAO Xiaolin,2012.The Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast for T639， ECMWF and Japan Models from June to August 2012[J].Meteor Mon,38(11):1423-1428.