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气象:2018,44(5):713-718
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2017年12月至2018年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验
张夏琨
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecasts bzeny T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2017 to February 2018
Zhang Xiakun
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2018-04-10    修订日期:2018-05-02
中文摘要: 对2017年12月至2018年2月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验。结果表明:3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变均具有较好的预报性能,其中ECMWF 模式预报效果最好。3个模式对850 hPa温度的转折性变化趋势均有较好的预报能力,对南方地区温度变化的预报能力优于北方地区;T639模式对北方地区的温度预报存在整体偏低的误差,而JP模式对南方地区的温度预报整体偏高,ECMWF 预报综合效果最好。对于2018年2月全国寒潮天气过程中的地面冷高压预报,T639模式对地面冷高压中心强度的预报效果优于ECMWF和JP模式,ECMWF模式对高压中心位置预报偏弱、偏东,T639和JP模式对高压中心位置预报亦存在明显偏差。
Abstract:The performance of medium-range forecasts by the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan (JP) from December 2017 to February 2018 are verified and compared. The results show that all the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitudes well, of which ECMWF model performs the best. The three models perform also well in predicting the transitions of temperature at 850 hPa, and they all have smaller biases in temperature forecasts for southern China than for northern China. The T639 model has an overall low biases in the temperature forecast of northern China while the JP model has higher temperature forecasts for southern China. The ECMWF forecast has the best effect comprehensively. The T639 model forecasts the intensity of cold high-pressure center better than the ECMWF and JP models. The ECMWF model predicts the location of the high-pressure center weakly and by east, T639 and JP models also have obvious biases in the location forecast of high-pressure center.
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张夏琨,2018.2017年12月至2018年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,44(5):713-718.
Zhang Xiakun,2018.Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecasts bzeny T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2017 to February 2018[J].Meteor Mon,44(5):713-718.