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气象:2018,44(5):704-712
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空气污染气象指数在上海地区的应用
瞿元昊,马井会,许建明,余钟奇,毛卓成,周婉君
(1 长三角环境气象预报预警中心,上海市气象局,上海 200030 2 上海市气象与健康重点实验室,上海 200030)
Application of Meteorological Air Pollution Index in Shanghai
QU Yuanhao,MA Jinghui,XU Jianming,YU Zhongqi,MAO Zhuocheng,ZHOU Wanjun
(1 Yangtze River Delta Center for Environmental Meteorology Prediction and Warning,  Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200030 2 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai 200030)
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投稿时间:2017-02-08    修订日期:2018-03-12
中文摘要: 利用常规气象观测资料和逐小时PM2.5浓度实况数据,对上海近3年污染天气过程分析后发现,导致上海重污染的天气类型主要为冷空气输送型和静稳累积型。为更好地表征及描述两种导致污染的天气类型,并在业务预报中起到指示作用,本文在反映大气垂直扩散条件的通风系数和反映水平扩散条件的滞留指数的基础上建立了空气污染扩散指数,通过检验发现,空气污染扩散指数与PM2.5浓度呈线性正相关,相关系数达0.525,并优于单一的通风系数和滞留指数对空气污染的指示作用。针对冷空气导致的区域输送型,结合历史个例分析改进了输送强度指数,将公式中排放源参数改为上游PM2.5浓度实况,回算检验表明改进后输送强度指数和上海市PM2.5浓度呈指数正相关,对区域输送性污染具有明显的指示性。
Abstract:In this paper, conventional meteorological observations and observed hourly PM2.5 concentration are analyzed to study the pollution events in Shanghai during the recent three years. Two predominant categories of weather systems, which are defined as cold air transport type and stagnant meteorological situation type, led to severe pollution events in Shanghai. In order to better describe the two types and make a good indication in forecasting operation, the meteorological air pollution index is created, based on the ventilation index and the retention index which respectively reflects atmospheric vertical and horizontal diffusion conditions. The air pollution diffusion index has linear positive correlation with PM2.5 concentration, with a correlation coefficient of 0.525 after a significant test. This index is greatly superior to the single ventilation index or retention index. Moreover, based on historical pollution events, the transport intensity index is modified for the pollution caused by cold air regional transport. The emission parameter in the equation is changed into upstream observed PM2.5 concentration. The back calculation test suggests that the modified transport intensity index has positive correlation with the Shanghai PM2.5 concentration, which shows a good indication to the pollution events caused by regional transport of cold airs.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0201903和2016YFC0201901)、国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAC22B03)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2014-22)、上海市科研计划项目(14DZ1202904)及上海市气象局科技开发项目(QM201617和QM201714)共同资助
引用文本:
瞿元昊,马井会,许建明,余钟奇,毛卓成,周婉君,2018.空气污染气象指数在上海地区的应用[J].气象,44(5):704-712.
QU Yuanhao,MA Jinghui,XU Jianming,YU Zhongqi,MAO Zhuocheng,ZHOU Wanjun,2018.Application of Meteorological Air Pollution Index in Shanghai[J].Meteor Mon,44(5):704-712.