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投稿时间:2025-09-01 修订日期:2026-04-02
投稿时间:2025-09-01 修订日期:2026-04-02
中文摘要: 利用1961—2024年云南125个观测站的逐日降水和气温资料,以及NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析高低层大气环流资料,对云南冬春连旱事件的标准定义进行研究。通过对云南冬季和春季干旱时空特征分析发现,云南冬春干旱总体呈现西北多东南少的分布态势,干旱发生最多的区域主要集中在滇西北东部的丽江、大理、楚雄北部,而红河南部和西双版纳南部干旱发生较少。基于研究分析结果定义了云南单站和全省冬春连旱事件的标准为:当某年某站冬季和春季均出现轻旱或以上级别干旱,且其中某个季节达到中旱或以上级别干旱时,定义该站点发生了冬春连旱事件;当某年全省有25个观测站(全省总站数的20%)出现冬春连旱事件,且冬季和春季全省平均降水量距平百分率≤-10%时,则定义为一次全省冬春连旱事件。研究发现该指标能够有效识别云南的冬春连旱事件。进一步分析发现,500 hPa东亚中低纬度地区北低南高的位势高度差异和700 hPa孟加拉湾异常反气旋的持续维持,对云南冬春连旱事件的发生有十分重要的影响。相关研究对于规范云南气候监测预测业务的冬春连旱事件标准有重要的科学意义和实际应用价值。
Abstract:Based on daily precipitation and temperature data from 125 observation stations in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2024, as well as NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data of atmospheric circulation in upper and lower levels, this paper investigates the criterion for the persistent drought events across winter and spring (WSPDE) in Yunnan. By analyzing the spatio-temporal characteristics of WSPDE in Yunnan, we have found that the WSPDE distribution in Yunnan is characterized by more in the northwest but less in the southeast. The regions with the highest drought frequency are mainly concentrated in the eastern part of northwest Yunnan, including Lijiang, Dali, and northern Chuxiong, while the southern parts of Honghe and Xishuangbanna have less drought events. The WSPDE standards for single station and provincial region in Yunnan are defined as follows. The station standard refers to the occurrence of light or above level drought in both winter and spring in a year, with moderate or above level drought occurring in one of two seasons. When 25 observation stations (20% of the total number of stations in Yunnan) experience the WSPDE in a year, and the average precipitation anomaly percentage in both winter and spring is ≤-10%, it is defined as a provincial WSPDE in Yunnan. Comparative analysis shows that this criterion can be reasonably used in identifying WSPDE in Yunnan. Further analysis reveals that the sustained maintenance of the geopotential height difference with high in the north and low in the south of the mid-low latitudes region at 500 hPa in East Asia, as well as anomalous anticyclones at 700 hPa in the Bay of Bengal has a significant impact on the WSPDE in Yunnan. The standard has an important scientific significance and application value for standardizing the WSPDE criterion for climate monitoring and prediction operations in Yunnan.
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基金项目:云南省基础研究计划重大项目(202501BC070001)资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 晏红明 | 云南省气候中心,昆明 650034 |
| 肖子牛 | 中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 100029 |
| 马思源 | 云南省气候中心,昆明 650034 |
| 王秀英 | 云南省普洱市气象局,普洱 665000 |
| 罗蒙 | 云南省气候中心,昆明 650034 |
引用文本:
晏红明,肖子牛,马思源,王秀英,罗蒙,2026.云南冬春连旱事件的识别标准及环流特征分析[J].气象,52(7):784-798.
YAN Hongming,XIAO Ziniu,MA Siyuan,WANG Xiuying,LUO Meng,2026.Identification Criterion and Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics of Persistent Drought Events Across Winter and Spring in Yunnan Province[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):784-798.
晏红明,肖子牛,马思源,王秀英,罗蒙,2026.云南冬春连旱事件的识别标准及环流特征分析[J].气象,52(7):784-798.
YAN Hongming,XIAO Ziniu,MA Siyuan,WANG Xiuying,LUO Meng,2026.Identification Criterion and Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics of Persistent Drought Events Across Winter and Spring in Yunnan Province[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):784-798.
