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气象:2026,52(7):799-809
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基于分钟级降水数据的山东汛期滑动和整点小时强降水差异研究
董旭光,高理,邬铭法
(山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,济南 250031; 山东省气候中心,济南 250031)
Difference Between Sliding Window and Hourly Fixed-Time Heavy Precipitation During the Flood Season in Shandong Province Based on Minutely Precipitation Data
DONG Xuguang,GAO Li,WU Mingfa
(Shandong Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Jinan 250031; Shandong Climate Center, Jinan 250031)
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投稿时间:2025-09-15    修订日期:2026-01-16
中文摘要: 整点小时降水会低估小时尺度的强降水特征,为进一步认识小时尺度强降水的变化规律,基于山东123个国家级气象观测站2004—2024年汛期(6—9月)逐分钟降水观测数据,对比滑动60 min与整点小时两种统计方法在强降水识别中的差异,定量评估不同方法对强降水频次、强度及其时空分布特征的影响。结果表明:滑动60 min方法捕捉强降水事件更全面,全省平均强降水累年发生次数为124.3次,是整点小时(84.3次)的1.47倍,各站介于1.31~1.81倍;滑动60 min最大降水量平均偏高10.0 mm,部分站点超30.0 mm。两种方法的强降水空间分布总体一致,但滑动60 min方法呈现更强的空间差异性和极端性。滑动60 min方法强降水频次和强度增加趋势更显著,气候倾向率分别为1.291次·(10 a)-1和4.514 mm·(10 a)-1,且月、日变化特征更为明显,7—8月及午后至凌晨为主的高发时段差异尤为突出。传统整点小时方法系统性低估短时强降水的发生频次与极端强度,而滑动60 min方法可更真实反映强降水特征,对提高暴雨监测准确性和灾害风险预警能力具有重要应用价值。
Abstract:Hourly fixed-time precipitation data may underestimate the characteristics of heavy precipitation at the hourly scale. To gain a deeper understanding of the variation patterns of hourly heavy precipitation, utilizing the minutely precipitation observation data collected by 123 national meteorological stations in Shandong Province from June to September during the flood seasons of 2004-2024, we compare the differences between the 60 min sliding window and hourly fixed-time statistical methods in identifying heavy precipitation events, and quantitatively assess the impact of the two methods on the frequency, intensity and spatio-temporal distribution of heavy precipitation. The results indicate that the 60 min sliding window method can capture heavy precipitation events more comprehensively than the hourly fixed-time method. The average frequency of heavy precipitation across the whole province is 124.3 times by means of the 60 min sliding window method, and it is 1.47 times that of the hourly fixed-time method (84.3 times), with the ratio of each station ranging between 1.31 and 1.81. The maximum precipitation captured by the 60 min sliding window method is 10.0 mm more on average, exceeding 30.0 mm for some stations. The spatial distributions of the heavy precipitation by two methods are generally in line, but the 60 min sliding window method reveals even greater spatial variability and stronger extremity of heavy precipitation. The 60 min sliding window method also more clearly shows the increasing trends in both frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation, with climatic tendency rates being 1.291 times per decade and 4.514 mm per decade, respectively. Moreover, the monthly and daily variation characteristics of heavy precipitation are more distinct by using the 60 min sliding window method, particularly in the high-frequency periods from July to August and from afternoon to early morning. The traditional hourly fixed-time statistical mehtod underestimates the frequency and extreme intensity of short-duration heavy precipitation. In contrast, the 60 min sliding window method can provide a more accurate representation of heavy precipitation characteristics, so it is of great application values for improving the accuracy of rainstorm monitoring and early warning capabilities for disasters.
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基金项目:山东省气象局科研项目(2023SDBD02)和环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM202206)共同资助
引用文本:
董旭光,高理,邬铭法,2026.基于分钟级降水数据的山东汛期滑动和整点小时强降水差异研究[J].气象,52(7):799-809.
DONG Xuguang,GAO Li,WU Mingfa,2026.Difference Between Sliding Window and Hourly Fixed-Time Heavy Precipitation During the Flood Season in Shandong Province Based on Minutely Precipitation Data[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):799-809.